Find Out the Angels vs Royals Score Prediction and Game Analysis – 8/21/24

Los Angeles Angels

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Kansas City Royals

On August 21, 2024, the Kansas City Royals will host the Los Angeles Angels at Kauffman Stadium in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. The Royals are enjoying a strong season with a 70-56 record, while the Angels are struggling at 54-72. In their last game, the Royals faced off against the Angels and emerged victorious, adding to their momentum.

Kansas City’s Michael Lorenzen is projected to take the mound, and despite being ranked as the 195th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced statistics, he has shown flashes of effectiveness this season. With a solid ERA of 3.68, Lorenzen has the potential to keep the Angels’ offense at bay, especially given that the Angels rank 25th in MLB offensively. However, his xFIP of 5.01 suggests he may have benefitted from some good fortune this year, raising questions about his long-term consistency.

Johnny Cueto, also a right-handed pitcher for the Angels, is expected to start. Cueto has struggled this season, with projections indicating he will allow an average of 3.3 earned runs and 6.2 hits. His performance has contributed to the Angels’ offensive woes, which rank poorly in multiple categories, including team batting average and home runs.

With the Royals’ offense currently ranked 12th in MLB and featuring standout performances from players like Dairon Blanco, they have the edge in this contest. The Royals are heavy betting favorites with a moneyline of -175, suggesting confidence in their ability to capitalize on the Angels’ deficiencies. The Game Total is set at 9.0 runs, reflecting expectations for a competitive yet potentially high-scoring affair.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Los Angeles Angels – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+135)
  Johnny Cueto has recorded a .235 BABIP since the start of last season, indicating that he has been one of the luckiest hurlers in the game on balls in play and regression likely forthcoming.
  Explain: Casual fans and the mainstream media don’t realize that pitchers have limited control over the hits they allow, which can drastically skew their results and the way the market treats them.
• Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Using Statcast data, Mickey Moniak ranks in the 8th percentile per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .214.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Los Angeles Angels – 2H Moneyline
  The Los Angeles Angels bullpen projects as the 3rd-worst in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Michael Lorenzen – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  Michael Lorenzen has a mean projection of 1.8 walks in today’s game, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.
• Maikel Garcia – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-255/+190)
  Maikel Garcia has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (83% of the time), but he is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Hunter Renfroe – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Hunter Renfroe pulls many of his flyballs (40% — 98th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 4th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Run Line -1.5 (+100)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Run Line in 70 of their last 123 games (+9.89 Units / 6% ROI)
• Los Angeles Angels – Moneyline (+165)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Moneyline in 39 of their last 83 games (+5.35 Units / 6% ROI)
• Jo Adell – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-120/-110)
  Jo Adell has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 12 of his last 16 away games (+8.25 Units / 45% ROI)