Find Out How to Watch Tigers vs Orioles – Friday, September 20th, 2024

Detroit Tigers

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Baltimore Orioles

As we head into the final stretch of the 2024 MLB season, the Baltimore Orioles host the Detroit Tigers on September 20 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. Both teams are fighting for playoff positions, with the Orioles boasting an 85-68 record, having a solid season, and the Tigers not far behind at 80-73, exceeding expectations with an above-average performance.

The Orioles are coming off a 5-3 victory over the Giants, with Corbin Burnes taking the mound as Baltimore’s ace in today’s matchup. Recognized as the 26th best starting pitcher in MLB, Burnes holds a stellar 3.06 ERA this year, although his 3.62 xFIP suggests some fortune in his performance. Burnes has delivered consistently, with a recent outing featuring seven scoreless innings, seven strikeouts, and just two hits allowed. However, his projection for today’s game indicates potential vulnerabilities, with 4.8 hits and 1.3 walks expected, which could be crucial against a Tigers lineup aiming to capitalize on any opportunities.

Detroit counters with Tyler Holton, a left-handed pitcher expected to pitch just 1.7 innings on average. While his brief outings may not allow for substantial impact, Holton’s projections show a respectable 0.7 earned runs allowed. The Tigers will need their bullpen, ranked 3rd in Power Rankings despite their year-to-date struggles, to step up against Baltimore’s powerful offense, which is 6th in overall MLB rankings.

Offensively, Baltimore’s Gunnar Henderson leads the charge, maintaining a strong .282 average with 37 homers this season. Meanwhile, the Tigers’ offense, ranked 24th, will lean on Riley Greene’s .262 batting clip.

Despite the Orioles being the betting favorite with a -165 moneyline, the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, sees a slight edge for the Tigers, suggesting a 5% greater win probability than the market implies. Given these odds, Detroit could offer betting value in what promises to be a tense American League battle.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Kerry Carpenter – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  Kerry Carpenter has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 96.7-mph average to last year’s 94.6-mph figure.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Detroit Tigers – 2H Moneyline
  The Detroit Tigers bullpen profiles as the 2nd-best in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Corbin Burnes – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Corbin Burnes has gone to his cutter 11.1% less often this season (44.3%) than he did last season (55.4%).
  Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Gunnar Henderson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)
  Gunnar Henderson has experienced some positive variance in regards to his home runs this year; his 32.7 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is inflated compared to his 24.0 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Anthony Santander – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)
  Anthony Santander pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40% — 98th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s deepest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Baltimore Orioles – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+115/-145)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 44 games (+16.25 Units / 31% ROI)
• Detroit Tigers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-115)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in their last 36 games (+36.00 Units / 77% ROI)
• Riley Greene – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+800/-1900)
  Riley Greene has hit the Home Runs Over in 6 of his last 25 games (+14.00 Units / 56% ROI)