Colorado Rockies
San Diego Padres
(-110/-110)-230
As the San Diego Padres prepare to face the Colorado Rockies on August 4, 2024, they find themselves in the thick of a competitive National League West. The Padres, boasting a record of 60-52, are having an above-average season and will look to build on their recent success after winning a tightly contested game against the Rockies by a score of 3-2 the previous day. In contrast, Colorado has struggled significantly this season with a 41-71 record, positioning them as a team in crisis.
Padres’ pitcher Matt Waldron, who has had a challenging year with a 6-9 record and an ERA of 3.89, is expected to take the mound. While Waldron ranks as the 147th best starting pitcher in MLB, his last outing was notably rough, allowing 5 earned runs over just 4 innings. Nevertheless, he faces a Rockies lineup that has struggled against right-handed pitchers this season. Cal Quantrill, the projected starter for Colorado, has also had difficulties, with a 7-7 record and a 4.50 ERA. Quantrill’s last start saw him allow 7 earned runs in a mere 4 innings, further emphasizing the Rockies’ pitching woes.
The Padres’ offense ranks 10th in MLB, highlighted by their 1st place standing in team batting average. Their best hitter, Jurickson Profar, is having a standout season, contributing significantly to their offensive output. According to the leading MLB projection system, the projections favor the Padres to score an average of 4.95 runs in this matchup, while the Rockies are projected to tally just 3.98 runs.
With the Padres’ potent lineup and the Rockies’ struggles on both the mound and at the plate, San Diego enters this game as a strong favorite, looking to assert their dominance in this series.
Colorado Rockies Insights
- Cal Quantrill – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+135/-170)Cal Quantrill has gone to his change-up 13% more often this season (35.4%) than he did last year (22.4%).Explain: Because change-ups are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Michael Toglia – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-150/+120)Michael Toglia has had some very good luck with his home runs this year; his 45.2 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is significantly inflated relative to his 33.1 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
- Jake Cave – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)Jake Cave hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
San Diego Padres Insights
- Matt Waldron – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)Matt Waldron’s 90-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 11th percentile out of all starters.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Jake Cronenworth – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)Jake Cronenworth has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 8.8% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% over the past week.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Matt Waldron – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)Kyle Higashioka, the Padres’s expected catcher in today’s game, grades out as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).
Betting Trends
- San Diego Padres – Moneyline (-230)The San Diego Padres have hit the Moneyline in 23 of their last 36 games (+9.30 Units / 21% ROI)
- Colorado Rockies – Run Line +1.5 (-110)The Colorado Rockies have hit the Run Line in 19 of their last 30 games (+5.55 Units / 15% ROI)
- Manny Machado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+110/-145)Manny Machado has hit the Total Bases Over in 14 of his last 22 games at home (+8.75 Units / 37% ROI)