Find Out How to Watch Rockies vs Dodgers – Friday, September 20th, 2024

Colorado Rockies

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Los Angeles Dodgers

As the Los Angeles Dodgers gear up to host the Colorado Rockies on September 20, 2024, at Dodger Stadium, the two teams find themselves at opposite ends of the National League West standings. The Dodgers are riding high with a strong 91-62 record, while the Rockies have struggled throughout the season with a 59-94 mark. This matchup features the Dodgers, who are not only a big favorite on the betting lines with a moneyline of -250 but also projected by THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, to have a 72% chance of victory.

The Dodgers are coming off a commanding 20-4 victory over the Miami Marlins, showcasing their offensive prowess. With one of the best offenses in the league, ranking 2nd overall, the Dodgers have been a force to be reckoned with, bolstered by the exceptional performance of Shohei Ohtani, who has put up impressive numbers this season. Meanwhile, the Rockies dropped their last game to the Arizona Diamondbacks, 9-4, and are projected to struggle again in this matchup.

On the mound, the Dodgers will start Ryan Brasier, a right-hander who has been mainly a bullpen arm this year. Despite being a low-strikeout pitcher, Brasier’s good ERA of 3.60 suggests he could hold his own against the Rockies’ high-strikeout lineup. On the flip side, Colorado’s Kyle Freeland, a lefty with a 4.89 ERA, faces a daunting task against the Dodgers’ high-powered offense. Freeland’s xFIP of 4.30 indicates some potential for better performance, but projections have him allowing 3.3 earned runs over just under five innings.

The Dodgers’ bullpen, ranked 13th, offers a slight edge over the Rockies’ 20th-ranked relief corps. With Los Angeles eyeing playoff positioning, this series opener presents an opportunity for the Dodgers to solidify their standing, while the Rockies aim to play spoiler.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Kyle Freeland – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (+110/-140)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Freeland to throw 84 pitches in this game (15th-least on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Charlie Blackmon – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Charlie Blackmon can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• The 8.4% Barrel% of the Colorado Rockies ranks them as the #10 group of hitters in the majors this year by this stat.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Miguel Rojas – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)
  Miguel Rojas has been lucky this year, compiling a .334 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .284 — a .050 difference.
  Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Max Muncy pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.3% — 96th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 8th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 50 of their last 82 games (+18.05 Units / 20% ROI)
• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 18 of their last 28 away games (+7.00 Units / 21% ROI)
• Tommy Edman – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+550/-1000)
  Tommy Edman has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 games (+24.50 Units / 272% ROI)