Find Out How to Watch Reds vs Cubs – Friday, September 27th, 2024

Cincinnati Reds

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Chicago Cubs

As the Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds prepare to face off on September 27, 2024, at Wrigley Field, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions within the National League Central. The Cubs, with an 81-78 record, are clinging to an average season, while the Reds, at 76-83, have struggled to find their footing. Despite their below-average standing, the Reds are eager to offer a competitive battle against their division rivals.

Jameson Taillon takes the mound for the Cubs, bringing a solid 3.41 ERA into the matchup. While his season-long performance has been commendable, advanced metrics suggest he might have been fortunate, as indicated by his higher xFIP of 4.12. Taillon’s recent outing on September 20 was impressive, as he pitched six scoreless innings against the Phillies. On the other side, Nick Martinez starts for the Reds, boasting a slightly superior ERA of 3.22. Martinez also delivered a strong six-inning shutout performance in his last start, striking out nine batters.

Offensively, the Cubs rank 13th in the league, with their lineup showing strength in stolen bases, ranking 8th. Ian Happ has been a consistent force for the Cubs this season, while Nico Hoerner has been on a hot streak over the past week. However, the Reds’ offense, ranked 19th, relies heavily on Elly De La Cruz’s dynamic play, highlighted by his 65 stolen bases.

While both teams’ bullpens rank near the bottom of the league, the Cubs hold a slight edge in this regard. The betting markets project a close game, with the Cubs favored at -130, implying a 54% chance of victory. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, aligns with this assessment, giving the Cubs the same win probability. In a matchup where both pitchers have demonstrated recent success, runs might be at a premium, as suggested by the low game total of 6.5 runs.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Cincinnati Reds – Moneyline (+110)
  The Cincinnati Reds infield defense profiles as the worst out of every team in action today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
• Jake Fraley – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Jake Fraley is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• It may be wise to expect worse results for the Cincinnati Reds offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 8th-luckiest offense in the game this year.
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Jameson Taillon – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Jameson Taillon has tallied 17.6 outs per outing this year, ranking in the 90th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Pete Crow-Armstrong has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.7-mph dropping to 79.2-mph over the last week.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago Cubs’ bullpen profiles as the 6th-worst out of all the teams in the game.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+100/-130)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Team Total Under in 42 of their last 66 games at home (+15.50 Units / 20% ROI)
• Cincinnati Reds – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (+120/-155)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Team Total Under in 75 of their last 131 games (+11.45 Units / 7% ROI)
• Jake Fraley – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Jake Fraley has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 21 games (+8.50 Units / 26% ROI)