Find Betting Odds and Bets for Yankees vs Rangers – September 2nd, 2024

New York Yankees

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Texas Rangers

As the New York Yankees visit Globe Life Field for a matchup against the Texas Rangers on September 2, 2024, this game marks the first in a series between the two clubs. Currently, the Yankees hold a strong record of 79-58, showcasing a potent offense that ranks 1st in MLB, while the Rangers sit at 65-72, struggling significantly this season with an offense ranked 26th.

In their last outing, the Yankees faced a tough defeat against the St. Louis Cardinals, losing 14-7. Meanwhile, the Rangers secured a narrow 6-4 victory over the Oakland Athletics, a positive note in their otherwise disappointing season.

On the mound, the Rangers are projected to start Jack Leiter, who has had a rough year, with an ERA of 12.83 and a record of 0-1 across four starts. His high walk rate of 10.5% could pose a significant challenge against the Yankees, who lead the league in drawing walks. In contrast, Gerrit Cole, the Yankees’ starter, has been solid, with a respectable ERA of 3.86 and a Power Rankings position as the 33rd best starting pitcher, suggesting he is among the better arms in the league. Cole’s last start saw him allow three earned runs over five innings, but he struck out seven batters, highlighting his effectiveness.

According to the leading MLB projection system, the projections favor the Yankees, suggesting a win probability of 57%. However, they project the Rangers to score 4.31 runs on average in this game, which could present value in betting on the underdog. With Cole on the mound, the Yankees are expected to capitalize on Leiter’s struggles, potentially resulting in a high-scoring affair. Overall, it should be an intriguing matchup as the Yankees look to bounce back while the Rangers aim to build on their recent success.

New York Yankees Insights

• Gerrit Cole – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-180/+140)
  Gerrit Cole has been given a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, recording 3.0 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Alex Verdugo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Alex Verdugo is penciled in 9th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 63% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Juan Soto – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Juan Soto hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 87th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 6th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Josh Jung – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Josh Jung has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.3-mph dropping to 79.2-mph in the last 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• The Texas Rangers have been the 2nd-unluckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better the rest of the season
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Texas Rangers – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 39 of their last 61 games at home (+14.80 Units / 21% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 52 of their last 81 games (+21.80 Units / 24% ROI)
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-260/+195)
  Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 32 games (+10.90 Units / 21% ROI)