Find Betting Odds and Bets for Pirates vs Rangers – August 19th, 2024

Pittsburgh Pirates

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Texas Rangers

The Texas Rangers and the Pittsburgh Pirates meet for the first game of their series at Globe Life Field on August 19, 2024. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Rangers sitting at 57-68 and the Pirates at 58-65. Each team has had its share of ups and downs, but they remain competitive in a tight race, albeit not for a division title.

In their last game on August 18, the Rangers managed to edge out the Minnesota Twins with a close 6-5 victory, showcasing a resilient performance from their offense. Meanwhile, the Pirates faced a tough loss against the Seattle Mariners, falling 10-3, which highlights their ongoing difficulties at the plate.

Dane Dunning is projected to start for the Rangers, and while he has a Win/Loss record of 4-7 and an ERA of 4.92 this season, his 4.35 xFIP suggests he’s been somewhat unlucky. He projects to pitch an average of 5.2 innings, allowing around 2.5 earned runs, but his tendency to give up hits and walks could be a concern, as he averages 5.0 hits and 1.6 walks per game.

Luis Ortiz, starting for the Pirates, has a much better ERA of 3.41 but a higher xFIP of 4.75, indicating he might not sustain his current level of performance. Ortiz has shown flashes of effectiveness in his last start, where he allowed only 2 earned runs over 5 innings.

Despite the Rangers’ offensive ranking at 23rd in MLB, projections indicate they may have the edge in this matchup, with a high implied team total of 4.54 runs. The leading MLB projection system suggests the Rangers are favored to win, making this a crucial game for them to build on their recent momentum.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Luis Ortiz – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-140/+110)
  Luis Ortiz’s fastball velocity has decreased 1 mph this season (94.3 mph) below where it was last year (95.3 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Oneil Cruz has performed at a clip of 34.2 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances this year, checking in at the 96th percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• The 8.6% Barrel% of the Pittsburgh Pirates makes them the #9 club in the league this year by this metric.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Dane Dunning – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+120/-155)
  Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Dane Dunning is projected to throw 85 pitches in this outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 2nd-least of the day.
  Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
• Josh Jung – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  Josh Jung has a ton of pop (80th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s usually a big “IF” (27.6% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Luis Ortiz is a pitch-to-contact type (25th percentile K%) — great news for Jung.
  Explain: If he is less likely to strikeout, he’ll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.
• Josh Jung – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-175)
  In today’s matchup, Josh Jung is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 6th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 40% rate (99th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 53 games at home (+15.60 Units / 27% ROI)
• Pittsburgh Pirates – Run Line +1.5 (-150)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 49 of their last 83 games (+14.55 Units / 14% ROI)
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+200/-265)
  Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Hits Over in 37 of his last 50 games (+19.25 Units / 20% ROI)