Find Betting Odds and Bets for Orioles vs Red Sox – September 10th, 2024

Baltimore Orioles

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Boston Red Sox

As the Boston Red Sox prepare to host the Baltimore Orioles on September 10, 2024, the stakes are high in this American League East matchup. The Red Sox are currently 73-71, sitting in third place, while the Orioles boast a strong 82-63 record, firmly in the playoff race. In their last encounter, the Red Sox delivered an impressive performance, defeating the Orioles 12-3, showcasing their potent offense.

The Red Sox will send Kutter Crawford to the mound, who has had an inconsistent season with an 8-13 record and a 4.08 ERA. However, Crawford is coming off a solid outing where he pitched six innings, allowing only two earned runs and striking out eight. Despite Crawford’s above-average ERA, his 4.64 FIP suggests that he may have benefited from some good fortune this season. He tends to give up fly balls, which could be concerning against an Orioles lineup that has hit the 2nd most home runs in MLB this year.

On the other side, the Orioles are set to start Albert Suarez, who has struggled in his last start, allowing six earned runs over four innings. Suarez carries a 3.49 ERA but his xFIP of 4.60 indicates he might not be as effective as his ERA suggests. His low strikeout rate of 18.1% could be problematic against a Red Sox lineup that strikes out frequently but has been potent lately.

According to the leading MLB projection system, the Red Sox are projected to score an impressive 5.50 runs in this game, reflecting their strong offensive capabilities. The game total is set at 9.0 runs, indicating expectations for a high-scoring affair. With a favorable matchup for the Red Sox against a struggling Suarez, they could leverage their offensive prowess to secure another victory against the Orioles.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Albert Suarez – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+140/-180)
  Tallying 15.2 outs per game per started this year on average, Albert Suarez places in the 25th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Cedric Mullins – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  The Boston Red Sox have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Cedric Mullins can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Baltimore Orioles – 2H Moneyline
  The Baltimore Orioles bullpen ranks as the 3rd-worst in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Kutter Crawford – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  Kutter Crawford’s curveball usage has fallen by 5.6% from last year to this one (12.1% to 6.5%) .
  Explain: Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Wilyer Abreu – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Wilyer Abreu has had some very good luck with his batting average this year; his .267 rate is significantly inflated relative to his .223 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  Jarren Duran has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.5%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Boston Red Sox – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 31 games (+6.25 Units / 18% ROI)
• Baltimore Orioles – Run Line +1.5 (-180)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 72 of their last 134 games (+15.15 Units / 9% ROI)
• Triston Casas – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+670/-1400)
  Triston Casas has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 35 games (+13.40 Units / 38% ROI)