Milwaukee Brewers
San Francisco Giants
(-120/+100)-135
As the San Francisco Giants and Milwaukee Brewers prepare for their matchup on September 11, 2024, both teams are in contrasting positions in the standings. The Brewers sit comfortably at 83-61, showcasing a strong season, while the Giants, with a record of 71-74, are struggling to find consistency. After a narrow 3-2 loss to the Brewers yesterday, the Giants will look to bounce back in the second game of this series.
Blake Snell, projected to start for San Francisco, has shown flashes of brilliance this season, ranking as the 20th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. Despite his 2-3 record, Snell’s 3.62 ERA and a significantly lower 2.77 xERA suggest he has been somewhat unlucky. His ability to strike out batters (projected at 7.2 strikeouts today) could be pivotal against a Brewers offense that, while potent, has a tendency to draw walks.
On the other hand, Colin Rea, who has a solid 12-4 record this year, is expected to take the mound for Milwaukee. However, his 3.72 ERA and a higher 4.34 xFIP indicate that he might not be as reliable as his record suggests. Rea’s projected performance shows he could struggle, particularly against a Giants lineup that, despite being ranked 19th in overall offense, has the potential to capitalize on his weaknesses.
Interestingly, projections favor the Giants in this matchup, with expectations of them scoring around 4.26 runs, compared to the Brewers’ projected total of 3.55 runs. Given the Giants’ elite bullpen ranking and their best hitter, Matt Chapman, who has been performing well lately, they may have the edge to turn yesterday’s loss into a victory today.
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
- Brice Turang – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-130/+100)Brice Turang has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (63% of the time), but he is penciled in 9th on the lineup card in this matchup.Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
San Francisco Giants Insights
- San Francisco Giants – Moneyline (-135)Out of every team today, the strongest infield defense belongs to the San Francisco Giants.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-150)Heliot Ramos has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- San Francisco Giants – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-120/-110)The San Francisco Giants have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 16 games at home (+5.45 Units / 30% ROI)
- Over/Under 7.0 Game Total (-120/+100)The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 74 of their last 140 games (+12.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- Rhys Hoskins – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+185/-245)Rhys Hoskins has hit the Runs Under in 18 of his last 22 games (+10.60 Units / 28% ROI)