Explore the Twins vs White Sox Matchup Preview and Game Analysis – Friday, August 22, 2025

Minnesota Twins

@

Chicago White Sox

As the Chicago White Sox prepare to host the Minnesota Twins on August 22, 2025, both teams are looking to find a spark in what has been a challenging season. The White Sox enter this matchup with a disappointing record of 45-82, while the Twins sit at 58-69, struggling to regain their footing in the American League Central. The stakes may not be high in terms of playoff contention, but both teams will want to showcase their talent as they kick off this series.

In their most recent outing, the Twins faced off against the White Sox yesterday, and while the specifics of that game are not highlighted, the urgency for both teams is palpable. The White Sox will send Aaron Civale to the mound, who has had a rough season with a 3-8 record and an ERA of 4.88. His advanced statistics suggest he has been somewhat unlucky, as his xERA of 4.21 indicates room for improvement. Civale’s projected performance for today shows he may pitch about 5.2 innings, allowing an average of 2.7 earned runs while striking out 4.5 batters, which is below average.

On the other side, the Twins will counter with Zebby Matthews, who has been more effective this year, sporting a 3-4 record and a higher xFIP of 3.17. While Matthews has a less-than-stellar ERA of 5.06, his projections indicate he may allow only 2.3 earned runs over about 4.9 innings, with 5.1 strikeouts. This matchup favors the Twins, especially considering their offense ranks 22nd overall, compared to the White Sox’s 28th ranking.

Betting odds currently favor the Twins, who have an implied team total of 4.54 runs, while the White Sox are projected at 3.96 runs. With the game total set at 8.5 runs, this matchup could be a low-scoring affair, especially given the offensive struggles both teams have faced this season.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Zebby Matthews – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
  Tallying 14.4 outs per start this year on average, Zebby Matthews places him the 13th percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Matt Wallner – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Matt Wallner has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 98.9-mph average in the last week to his seasonal 92.1-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Minnesota Twins – 2H Moneyline
  The Minnesota Twins bullpen grades out as the 8th-worst in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Aaron Civale – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-150/+115)
  Aaron Civale’s four-seamer rate has increased by 6.4% from last year to this one (9.9% to 16.3%) .
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Luis Robert – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Despite posting a .288 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Luis Robert Jr. has experienced some negative variance given the .034 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .322.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• Colson Montgomery – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)
  Colson Montgomery pulls many of his flyballs (35% — 88th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s 9th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Chicago White Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (-130)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 62 of their last 107 games (+12.95 Units / 10% ROI)
• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+120/-150)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 36 of their last 56 games (+12.25 Units / 18% ROI)
• Zebby Matthews – Over/Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (-135/+105)
  Zebby Matthews has hit the Hits Allowed Over in 8 of his last 10 games (+6.15 Units / 53% ROI)