Explore the Top Player Prop Picks for White Sox vs Astros – August 16th, 2024

Chicago White Sox

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Houston Astros

On August 16, 2024, the Houston Astros will face off against the Chicago White Sox at Minute Maid Park in the first game of their series. The Astros, currently holding a record of 65-55, are enjoying an above-average season, while the White Sox are struggling significantly at 29-93. This American League matchup features a stark contrast in the teams’ performances this year, with Houston currently sitting in a much better position.

In their last game on August 14, the Astros secured a narrow 2-1 victory over the Tampa Bay Rays, showcasing their ability to win close contests. Meanwhile, the White Sox suffered a lopsided defeat at the hands of the New York Yankees, losing 10-2. The Astros are projected to start Spencer Arrighetti, who has had a challenging season with a 5-10 record and a 5.14 ERA, ranking him as the 137th best starting pitcher in MLB. However, his advanced metrics suggest he might have been unlucky, as his xFIP is 1.10 points lower than his ERA.

Opposing him will be Garrett Crochet, who has had a solid season with a 3.65 ERA and is ranked 7th best in the league. Despite this, Crochet’s last start saw him yield 7 earned runs in just 2 innings pitched, raising questions about his current form.

The Astros’ offense ranks 11th in the league overall and boasts the 2nd best batting average, led by their standout hitter Yordan Alvarez. In contrast, the White Sox offense ranks last in the league, struggling with both average and power. With the Astros projected to score nearly 4.68 runs and their strong bullpen ranked 4th best in MLB, they have the upper hand in this matchup. The projections suggest a significant advantage for Houston, making them a strong favorite as they look to continue their winning ways against a struggling White Sox squad.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Garrett Crochet – Over/Under Pitching Outs
  Garrett Crochet has averaged 38.5 adjusted pitches per game per started this year, ranking in the 0th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Nicky Lopez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Extreme groundball batters like Nicky Lopez generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Spencer Arrighetti.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• It may be sensible to expect stronger performance for the Chicago White Sox offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 2nd-unluckiest offense in baseball this year.
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Houston Astros Insights

• Spencer Arrighetti – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  With a 1.11 deviation between Spencer Arrighetti’s 11.06 K/9 and his 9.95 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball this year in terms of strikeouts and should perform worse going forward.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Victor Caratini – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-190/+145)
  Victor Caratini has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (100% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Houston Astros – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Houston Astros’ bullpen profiles as the 4th-best out of all teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Houston Astros – Moneyline (-260)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 51 games (+13.45 Units / 19% ROI)
• Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 2.5 Team Total (-135/+105)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 11 of their last 13 away games (+8.95 Units / 58% ROI)
• Jake Meyers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Jake Meyers has hit the Total Bases Under in 22 of his last 36 games (+8.85 Units / 19% ROI)