Explore the Top Player Prop Picks for Twins vs Cardinals – March 30th, 2025

Minnesota Twins

@

St. Louis Cardinals

As the St. Louis Cardinals host the Minnesota Twins at Busch Stadium on March 30, 2025, fans can expect an exciting matchup, especially after the Cardinals secured a 5-1 victory over the Twins just yesterday. Each team enters this game with distinctly different trajectories this season, with the Cardinals boasting a 2-0 record while the Twins are struggling at 0-2.

The Cardinals are projected to start right-handed pitcher Andre Pallante, who has an average Power Ranking of #93 among MLB starters. Although Pallante’s last outing wasn’t particularly thrilling, allowing 3 earned runs in 5 innings, he projects to allow just 2.3 earned runs today, indicating he could keep the Twins in check. However, he does have concerning projections for hits and walks, averaging 5.2 hits and 1.8 walks allowed.

On the other hand, the Twins will counter with Bailey Ober, who is ranked higher at #40 in MLB. Ober also pitched well in his last start with 3 earned runs in 5 innings but projects to allow a higher 2.3 earned runs today compared to Pallante. Ober’s projections are less favorable, particularly with an average of 4.5 hits allowed.

Offensively, the Cardinals have an average ranking of #15, while the Twins sit at #11, showing slightly better performance overall. Despite the struggles of the Twins, their best hitter is finding ways to contribute, with a solid OPS of 2.000, albeit in just one game.

With a Game Total set at 8.5 runs, both teams are looking for momentum as they continue this interleague series. The Cardinals may have the edge, especially if Pallante can capitalize on his favorable projection against a more inconsistent Twins lineup.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Bailey Ober – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Among all SPs, Bailey Ober’s fastball velocity of 91.7 mph grades out in the 16th percentile since the start of last season.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Matt Wallner – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  Since the start of last season, the hardest ball Matt Wallner has hit reached a maximum exit velocity of 116.8 mph (an advanced metric to study power), placing in the 98th percentile.
  Explain: If a player can hit the ball hard even once, it has great predictive power over his ability to do it again. If he’s never hit the ball hard, it’s a sign of a lack of power.
• Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Byron Buxton pulls many of his flyballs (41.9% — 99th percentile) and will be challenged by the game’s 8th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Andre Pallante – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Given that flyball pitchers are least effective against groundball hitters, Andre Pallante (59.7% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this matchup with 2 GB hitters in Minnesota’s projected offense.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Extreme groundball batters like Nolan Arenado tend to be less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Bailey Ober.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• The St. Louis Cardinals have been the 10th-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball since the start of last season, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress in future games
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (-110)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 21 of their last 36 games (+7.90 Units / 19% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 44 of their last 79 games (+12.40 Units / 14% ROI)
• Ryan Jeffers – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-125/-105)
  Ryan Jeffers has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 6 of his last 7 away games (+4.50 Units / 48% ROI)