Washington Nationals
New York Mets
(+100/-120)-205
As the New York Mets prepare to face the Washington Nationals on September 16, 2024, the stakes are high given the teams’ positions in the National League East. The Mets, currently sitting at 81-68, are enjoying an above-average season, while the Nationals are struggling with a 68-81 record, marking them as below average. In their most recent outing on September 15, the Mets fell to the Philadelphia Phillies by a tight score of 2-1, demonstrating the closely contested nature of their games. Meanwhile, the Nationals achieved a more favorable outcome, defeating the Miami Marlins 4-3.
The matchup pits left-handed pitcher Sean Manaea against the Nationals’ right-hander Jake Irvin. Manaea, ranked 79th among approximately 350 pitchers, has been solid this year with an 11-5 record and a commendable ERA of 3.35. His recent outing, where he pitched 7 innings, allowed just 1 earned run, and recorded 8 strikeouts, showcases his ability to dominate on the mound. Conversely, Jake Irvin has struggled with an ERA of 4.19 and a 10-12 record, earning him a reputation as a less effective pitcher this season.
The Mets’ offense ranks 11th in MLB, bolstered by standout performances, particularly from Francisco Lindor, who has made significant contributions throughout the season. Although the Nationals boast an average batting average, they have been hindered by their 29th rank in home runs, which could prove detrimental against a high-flyball pitcher like Manaea.
According to the leading MLB projection system, the Mets are favored to win this contest, projecting a total of 4.12 runs compared to the Nationals’ meager 3.25 runs. With the Mets looking to bounce back from their narrow defeat, they appear well-positioned to capitalize against a struggling Nationals lineup.
Washington Nationals Insights
- Jake Irvin – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)Jake Irvin has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 3.7 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average starting pitcher.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Juan Yepez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Juan Yepez’s true offensive talent to be a .300, suggesting that he has experienced some positive variance this year given the .045 gap between that mark and his actual .345 wOBA.Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
- According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected batting order for the Washington Nationals in this game carries an estimated true talent wOBA of .291, which is considerably worse than their actual wOBA of .302 this year.Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.
New York Mets Insights
- Sean Manaea – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+125/-165)Sean Manaea’s sinker utilization has spiked by 38.6% from last season to this one (0.7% to 39.3%) .Explain: Sinkers are the easiest pitches to hit and generate the fewest strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his sinker more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
- Jose Iglesias – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+165/-220)Jose Iglesias is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 86% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- The 9.1% Barrel% of the New York Mets makes them the #5 club in MLB this year by this stat.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Betting Trends
- New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-205)The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 29 of their last 50 games at home (+12.60 Units / 17% ROI)
- Washington Nationals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+105/-135)The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 25 of their last 41 away games (+7.45 Units / 15% ROI)
- Sean Manaea – Over/Under 4.5 Hits Allowed (-145/+115)Sean Manaea has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 20 of his last 29 games (+10.85 Units / 31% ROI)