Explore the Top Player Prop Picks for Nationals vs Mets – June 10th, 2025

Washington Nationals

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New York Mets

On June 10, 2025, the New York Mets will host the Washington Nationals at Citi Field in what promises to be an interesting matchup. The Mets, with a strong record of 42-24, are enjoying a remarkable season, ranking 5th in MLB for offensive performance. In stark contrast, the Nationals sit at 30-35, showcasing a below-average season, particularly with an offense ranking just 19th overall. Adding to the intrigue, Griffin Canning is set to take the mound for the Mets, while the Nationals will counter with MacKenzie Gore.

Canning boasts a solid 2.90 ERA this season, although his xFIP of 3.68 suggests he may be due for some regression. The right-hander has demonstrated excellent control, but his high walk rate (10.0 BB%) might be put to the test against a Nationals offense that is not known for drawing walks—ranking 5th lowest in MLB. With a projected average of 5.6 innings pitched and 2.3 earned runs allowed, Canning is positioned to neutralize a struggling Nationals lineup.

Gore, on the other hand, has shown flashes of brilliance with a 2.87 ERA, making him one of the standout performers on Washington’s roster. However, his high flyball rate (37 FB%) against a potent Mets offense that has belted 83 home runs this season creates a concerning scenario for the left-hander. If the Mets can capitalize on Gore’s flyball tendencies, they could extend their great season further.

Given the current odds, the Mets are favored with a moneyline of -160, and projections indicate they may have a slight edge in this contest. The Game Total is set at a low 7.5 runs, hinting at a potentially competitive matchup that favors the Mets based on their offensive prowess. As both teams line up for this critical National League East battle, eyes will be on whether the Mets can exploit the advantages and continue their winning ways against the Nationals.

Washington Nationals Insights

• Keibert Ruiz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-160/+125)
  Keibert Ruiz is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 83% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Washington Nationals have been the 10th-luckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse going forward
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

New York Mets Insights

• Griffin Canning – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Because flyball hitters perform worse against flyball pitchers, Griffin Canning (43.5% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in today’s game with 6 FB hitters in the opposing club’s projected batting order.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Pete Alonso – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+135)
  Pete Alonso has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 94.4-mph average to last year’s 89.7-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets’ bullpen projects as the 4th-worst among all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• New York Mets – Run Line -1.5 (+145)
  The New York Mets have hit the Run Line in 32 of their last 54 games (+11.09 Units / 16% ROI)
• Washington Nationals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-110/-120)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Team Total Under in 31 of their last 50 games (+10.49 Units / 18% ROI)
• MacKenzie Gore – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  MacKenzie Gore has hit the Strikeouts Over in 13 of his last 15 games (+10.95 Units / 59% ROI)