Explore the Top Player Prop Picks for D-Backs vs Marlins – August 21st, 2024

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Miami Marlins

As the Miami Marlins prepare to take on the Arizona Diamondbacks on August 21, 2024, both teams enter this matchup with contrasting trajectories. While the Marlins languish at 46-80, enduring a dismal season, the Diamondbacks stand at 71-56, showcasing a solid campaign. This battle is particularly intriguing as it marks the third game of their series, with the Diamondbacks having taken the previous contest 3-1 on August 20.

Roddery Munoz is projected to start for the Marlins, delivering a challenging matchup for Miami. Munoz, ranked as the 327th best starting pitcher in MLB, has struggled this season with a 2-7 record and an alarming ERA of 5.88. In his last outing, he went just three innings, allowing four earned runs. Meanwhile, Jordan Montgomery, who has also had his struggles, will take the mound for the Diamondbacks with a 6.25 ERA. Montgomery’s recent performance was notably better, pitching six innings with three earned runs against the Marlins on August 14.

Offensively, the Diamondbacks boast the 4th best lineup in MLB, while the Marlins rank a dismal 29th. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, indicates the Marlins are expected to score around 4.30 runs, falling short of the Diamondbacks’ projected total of 5.20 runs. This also reflects in the betting lines, with Miami positioned as an underdog at +135 and Arizona favored at -160.

With the Diamondbacks’ high-powered offense against a struggling Marlins squad, the odds favor Arizona. However, given the unpredictability of baseball, Munoz’s potential for improvement could unexpectedly alter the game’s dynamics if he finds a rhythm.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Jordan Montgomery – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Jordan Montgomery will tally an average of 16.6 outs today.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.
• Eugenio Suarez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Miami’s #2-ranked outfield defense on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Eugenio Suarez, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected lineup for the Arizona Diamondbacks in today’s game holds an estimated true talent wOBA of .312, which is significantly lower than their actual wOBA of .329 this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Roddery Munoz – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-145/+115)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have 8 batters in the projected lineup that will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Roddery Munoz today.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Derek Hill – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-200/+155)
  Derek Hill has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (78% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today’s game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Miami Marlins’ bullpen ranks as the 6th-worst among all the teams in baseball.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 55 games at home (+20.65 Units / 34% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 53 of their last 87 games (+18.70 Units / 20% ROI)
• Joc Pederson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-210/+160)
  Joc Pederson has hit the Hits Over in 15 of his last 18 games (+9.75 Units / 28% ROI)