Explore the Top Player Prop Picks for D-Backs vs Giants – September 9th, 2025

Arizona Diamondbacks

@

San Francisco Giants

As the San Francisco Giants and Arizona Diamondbacks clash on September 9, 2025, at Oracle Park, both teams find themselves in the midst of average seasons. The Giants, with a record of 73-71, are slightly ahead of the Diamondbacks, who sit at 72-73. This matchup is particularly intriguing as it marks the second game in their series, with the Giants looking to capitalize on their home-field advantage.

In their last game, the Giants fell short against the Diamondbacks, who showcased their offensive prowess. With the Diamondbacks ranking 5th in MLB for runs scored and 7th in home runs this season, they pose a significant challenge to the Giants’ pitching staff. Robbie Ray, projected to start for San Francisco, has had a solid year with a 10-6 record and a strong ERA of 3.31. However, his 4.22 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit lucky, and the powerful Diamondbacks lineup could exploit any mistakes he makes, especially given Ray’s high flyball rate of 39%.

On the other side, Zac Gallen, the Diamondbacks’ starter, has struggled with a 4.77 ERA this season. Despite this, his 4.08 xFIP indicates he has been somewhat unlucky, suggesting potential for improvement. Gallen’s ability to limit damage will be crucial as the Giants’ offense ranks 20th in MLB, struggling to find consistent production.

The Giants are favored with a moneyline of -145, reflecting a 57% implied win probability. Given the strength of the Diamondbacks’ offense and their recent success, this could be an opportunity for bettors to capitalize on the Giants’ implied team total of 4.04 runs, which may not fully account for the challenges they face against Gallen and a potent Diamondbacks lineup.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Zac Gallen – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-125/-105)
  Compared to average, Zac Gallen has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording an extra 4.2 adjusted pitches each start.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Geraldo Perdomo – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-200)
  Geraldo Perdomo’s average exit velocity has decreased of late; his 87.3-mph seasonal figure has lowered to 82.7-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks’ bullpen ranks as the 10th-worst among all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Robbie Ray – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have 8 batters in the projected lineup that will have the handedness advantage over Robbie Ray in this matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Patrick Bailey – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  As it relates to his home runs, Patrick Bailey has experienced some negative variance this year. His 4.5 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been significantly deflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 11.1.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Heliot Ramos has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.2%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the league’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – Run Line -1.5 (+155)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Run Line in 16 of their last 21 games (+10.85 Units / 37% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 70 of their last 129 games (+20.20 Units / 11% ROI)
• Ildemaro Vargas – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-205)
  Ildemaro Vargas has hit the Total Bases Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+8.05 Units / 31% ROI)