Explore the Top Player Prop Picks for Cardinals vs Braves – April 21st, 2025

St. Louis Cardinals

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Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves welcome the St. Louis Cardinals to Truist Park for the first game of their series on April 21, 2025. Both teams are struggling this season, with the Braves holding an 8-13 record and the Cardinals slightly ahead at 9-13. Atlanta is a big betting favorite with a moneyline of -215, suggesting a solid 66% implied win probability, while St. Louis sits at +185, indicating a 34% chance of victory.

In their last outings, the Braves snapped a losing streak with a convincing 6-2 win against the Miami Marlins on April 20, while the Cardinals fell 7-4 to the New York Mets. The Braves will send right-hander Spencer Schwellenbach to the mound, who is currently ranked 16th among starting pitchers according to advanced statistics, showcasing his potential. Despite a rough outing in his last start where he allowed 6 earned runs over 5 innings, Schwellenbach’s impressive 2.55 ERA this season suggests he has the tools to perform well. However, projections indicate he may need to adjust, as his peripheral stats suggest he has been a bit lucky thus far.

On the other hand, the Cardinals will counter with Erick Fedde, who has an average 3.43 ERA and has struggled with walks in his recent games. Fedde’s last performance was solid, allowing only 1 earned run across 6 innings against the Mets. While both offenses have not been firing on all cylinders—Atlanta ranks 19th in overall offensive production while St. Louis is 7th—this matchup could favor the Braves, especially given their significantly higher implied team total of 5.01 runs.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Erick Fedde – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  Compared to the average starting pitcher, Erick Fedde has been granted more leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, recording an extra 3.0 adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Alec Burleson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)
  This year, Alec Burleson’s Barrel% has decreased significantly, dropping from 6.6% last year to just 0% this year.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  In today’s game, Nolan Arenado is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 2nd-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 41.8% rate (99th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Spencer Schwellenbach – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Spencer Schwellenbach has used his off-speed and breaking balls 11% less often this year (53.1%) than he did last season (64.1%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  In comparison to his 92.1-mph average last year, Marcell Ozuna’s exit velocity has noticeably risen this season, now sitting at 96.3 mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Atlanta Braves – Moneyline (-220)
  The 2nd-best projected batting order on the slate today in terms of overall batting ability is that of the Atlanta Braves.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Atlanta Braves – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The Atlanta Braves have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 20 games (+2.55 Units / 11% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.60 Units / 18% ROI)
• Brendan Donovan – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Brendan Donovan has hit the Total Bases Over in 10 of his last 15 games (+7.15 Units / 39% ROI)