Explore the Top Player Prop Picks for Cardinals vs Braves – April 21st, 2025

St. Louis Cardinals

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Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves will host the St. Louis Cardinals on April 21, 2025, at Truist Park. As both teams sit at the bottom of their divisions with records of 8-13 and 9-13 respectively, this matchup carries significant weight for both to reverse their fortunes. The Braves, despite their struggles, come in as betting favorites with a moneyline of -185 and an implied team total of 4.85 runs, reflecting some confidence in their ability to capitalize on home-field advantage.

Spencer Schwellenbach is projected to start for Atlanta and is currently ranked as the 16th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats, a strong indicator of his potential despite the team’s overall performance. Schwellenbach has posted an impressive ERA of 2.55 this season, although his metrics suggest he may have been fortunate thus far. He has a solid projection of 5.7 innings pitched with a projected allowance of just 2.3 earned runs, which could serve him well against a Cardinals offense that ranks 9th in MLB but has struggled to generate consistent power, sitting at 19th in home runs.

On the other hand, Erick Fedde is slated to take the mound for St. Louis, with an average ERA of 3.43. He has not been as effective as Schwellenbach, with a projected allowance of 3.1 earned runs over 5.3 innings and a concerning tendency to give up hits and walks. This could prove detrimental against a Braves lineup that has been average overall but ranks 10th in home runs this season.

The Braves offense has shown signs of life, particularly from their best hitter, who boasts a .417 batting average over the past week, compared to the Cardinals’ best hitter, who leads with a solid but less impactful .370 average. With the stakes high and a chance to gain momentum, the Braves look poised to seize an opportunity at home against a struggling Cardinals squad.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Erick Fedde – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  Compared to the average starting pitcher, Erick Fedde has been granted more leash than the average pitcher since the start of last season, recording an extra 3.0 adjusted pitches each game.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Alec Burleson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  This year, Alec Burleson’s Barrel% has decreased significantly, dropping from 6.6% last year to just 0% this year.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Nolan Arenado – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  In today’s game, Nolan Arenado is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 2nd-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 41.8% rate (99th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Atlanta Braves Insights

• Spencer Schwellenbach – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Spencer Schwellenbach has used his off-speed and breaking balls 11% less often this year (53.1%) than he did last season (64.1%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  In comparison to his 92.1-mph average last year, Marcell Ozuna’s exit velocity has noticeably risen this season, now sitting at 96.3 mph.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Atlanta Braves – Moneyline (-185)
  The 3rd-best projected batting order on the slate today in terms of overall batting ability is that of the Atlanta Braves.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line +0.5 (+105)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.40 Units / 15% ROI)
• Brendan Donovan – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+145/-185)
  Brendan Donovan has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 10 away games (+6.70 Units / 67% ROI)