Atlanta Braves
San Francisco Giants
(+100/-120)-110
The San Francisco Giants will host the Atlanta Braves on August 12, 2024, in what promises to be an intriguing National League matchup. Both teams are currently hovering around the .500 mark, with the Giants sitting at 61-59 and the Braves at 61-56. While both teams have had their ups and downs, the Braves are enjoying a slightly better season overall.
In their last game on August 11, the Giants played the Detroit Tigers and narrowly lost 5-4. The Giants will look to bounce back with Blake Snell on the mound, a left-hander who, despite a modest 2-3 record and a 4.31 ERA this season, ranks as the 18th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. However, Snell has been somewhat unlucky this year, with a lower 3.39 xFIP suggesting he could perform better moving forward.
The Braves will counter with Chris Sale, an elite lefty boasting a 13-3 record and a stellar 2.75 ERA, placing him 4th in Power Rankings. Sale has a solid track record this season, and while he had a rocky performance in his last outing, allowing 2 earned runs despite giving up 9 hits, he still managed to keep the damage controlled.
The projections indicate a close contest, with the Braves slightly favored to win. They have been bolstered by Marcell Ozuna, who has been outstanding this season with 35 home runs and a .963 OPS. Meanwhile, the Giants will rely on Matt Chapman as their top hitter, who has contributed significantly but may need more support from the lineup.
Both teams are well aware that every game counts as they push through the final stretch of the season. With both pitchers capable of dominant performances, this game could very well come down to which offense can capitalize on the opposing pitcher’s mistakes. Expect a low-scoring affair with the Game Total set at just 6.5 runs.
Atlanta Braves Insights
- Chris Sale – Over/Under 8.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)Chris Sale’s four-seam fastball usage has dropped by 5.7% from last season to this one (43.1% to 37.4%) .Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.
- Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135)Marcell Ozuna has been lucky this year, notching a .404 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .350 — a .054 difference.Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
- Matt Olson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)Matt Olson pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.1% — 81st percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
San Francisco Giants Insights
- Blake Snell – Over/Under 8.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)Blake Snell’s 2450-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 90th percentile out of all starting pitchers.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Tyler Fitzgerald – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)Tyler Fitzgerald has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (67% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card today.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- Blake Snell – Over/Under 8.5 Strikeouts (+130/-170)Patrick Bailey, the Giants’s expected catcher in today’s game, projects as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).
Betting Trends
- San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-115)The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 27 of their last 50 games at home (+8.00 Units / 11% ROI)
- Over/Under 6.5 Game Total (+100/-120)The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 66 of their last 111 games (+20.70 Units / 17% ROI)
- Tyler Fitzgerald – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+700/-1600)Tyler Fitzgerald has hit the Home Runs Over in 10 of his last 23 games (+43.40 Units / 189% ROI)