Explore the Red Sox vs White Sox Matchup Preview and Game Analysis – Sunday, April 13, 2025

Boston Red Sox

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Chicago White Sox

On April 13, 2025, the Chicago White Sox will host the Boston Red Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field for the third game of their series. Chicago is struggling this season with a record of 4-10, while Boston sits at 7-9, also underperforming. The White Sox managed a narrow victory over the Red Sox in their last matchup, winning 3-2, but both teams are looking to find consistency as they aim to turn their seasons around.

Shane Smith is set to take the mound for the White Sox. Despite his Power Rankings position at #138, he boasts an impressive ERA of 1.54 this season. However, his 3.85 xFIP suggests he may have been fortunate thus far, and his high walk rate of 11.4% could be a concern against a Red Sox lineup that ranks 5th in the league for drawing walks. Smith’s projected stats indicate he may struggle today, as he is anticipated to allow 2.4 earned runs over 5.1 innings pitched.

Garrett Crochet, on the other hand, is projected to start for the Red Sox. Ranked 12th in MLB, he has an excellent ERA of 1.45 and a solid strikeout projection of 7.2 batters per game. While his xFIP is slightly elevated at 3.99, he has demonstrated the ability to limit damage effectively. With the White Sox’s offense ranking 27th in the league, the matchup favors Crochet.

The projections indicate a low Game Total of 7.0 runs, reflecting the struggles both offenses have faced. With the White Sox’s overall offensive ranking at 27th and the Red Sox’s at 12th, Boston appears to have the edge in this contest. As the Red Sox look to capitalize on their favorable matchup, they may just find the momentum they need to shift their season in the right direction.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Garrett Crochet – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Garrett Crochet’s fastball velocity has decreased 2.1 mph this season (95 mph) below where it was last season (97.1 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Triston Casas – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-140/+110)
  Triston Casas is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The Boston Red Sox (24.7% K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 5th-most strikeout-prone team of batters of the day.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the most inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Shane Smith will “start” for Chicago White Sox today but will function as an opener and may not pitch more than a couple frames.
  Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
• Lenyn Sosa – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)
  Lenyn Sosa has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.6-mph dropping to 83.6-mph in the past 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Chicago White Sox – 2H Moneyline
  The Chicago White Sox bullpen ranks as the 2nd-worst in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Chicago White Sox – Run Line +1.5 (+110)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the Run Line in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.60 Units / 30% ROI)
• Boston Red Sox – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+105/-135)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games (+2.50 Units / 21% ROI)
• Andrew Vaughn – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+120/-155)
  Andrew Vaughn has hit the Singles Under in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 57% ROI)