Texas Rangers
New York Mets
(-120/+100)-160
As the New York Mets face off against the Texas Rangers on September 13, 2025, at Citi Field, both teams are vying for a strong finish to their seasons. The Mets sit at 76-72, having endured an average season, while the Rangers are above average at 78-70. This matchup is crucial for the Mets, who are still in the hunt for a Wild Card spot, while the Rangers are looking to solidify their postseason aspirations.
In their previous encounter, the Mets showcased their offensive prowess, but fell short against the Rangers, who have struggled offensively throughout the year, ranking 26th in MLB this season. The Mets’ offense, however, has been impressive, ranking 6th overall, which bodes well as they look to exploit a Rangers pitching staff that has not performed up to par.
Brandon Sproat will take the mound for the Mets. Although he has only started one game this year, his 4.50 ERA is average, and his 3.83 xFIP suggests he may have been unlucky thus far. His projections indicate he is likely to pitch around 5.0 innings, allowing approximately 2.4 earned runs. Conversely, Patrick Corbin, projected to start for the Rangers, has been one of the worst pitchers in MLB this season, with a 7-9 record and an ERA of 4.36, projecting to yield 3.2 earned runs over 4.8 innings.
Given the Mets’ strong offensive rankings and the projections favoring their performance, they are positioned as the favorites with a moneyline of -160. This matchup presents a compelling opportunity for bettors, as the Mets are expected to capitalize on their offensive strength against Corbin’s struggles.
Texas Rangers Insights
- Patrick Corbin – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+125/-160)Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Patrick Corbin is projected to throw 84 pitches in today’s outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 12th-least of all pitchers on the slate.Explain: Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.
- Wyatt Langford – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-165)Wyatt Langford has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.1-mph to 100.7-mph over the past week.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- The Texas Rangers as a unit place 28th- overall in baseball this year as it relates to the maximum exit velocity of all of the baseballs their [HITTER}s have hit.Explain: If a player can hit the ball hard even once, it has great predictive power over his ability to do it again. If he’s never hit the ball hard, it’s a sign of a lack of power.
New York Mets Insights
- Jose Siri – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-110/-120)Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.310) implies that Jose Siri has been unlucky since the start of last season with his .265 actual wOBA.Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
- Mark Vientos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)Mark Vientos hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.4% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the league’s shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 46 of their last 82 games (+11.60 Units / 13% ROI)
- Texas Rangers – Run Line +1.5 (-150)The Texas Rangers have hit the Run Line in 38 of their last 63 games (+13.50 Units / 17% ROI)
- Francisco Lindor – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)Francisco Lindor has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+11.60 Units / 50% ROI)