Explore the Rangers vs Cubs Matchup Preview and Game Analysis – Tuesday, April 8, 2025

Texas Rangers

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Chicago Cubs

On April 8, 2025, the Chicago Cubs will host the Texas Rangers at Wrigley Field for the second game of their interleague series. Both teams are enjoying strong seasons, with the Cubs sitting at 8-5 and the Rangers slightly ahead at 8-3. However, the Cubs’ offense has been exceptional, ranking 5th in MLB, while the Rangers have struggled, landing at a dismal 30th in the league.

In their last matchup, the Cubs emerged victorious, showcasing their potent lineup, which ranks 1st in stolen bases and 4th in home runs. The Cubs’ best hitter has been on fire, batting .318 with a 1.210 OPS over the past week. In contrast, the Rangers’ top performer has also shown promise, but their overall offensive struggles have hampered their performance.

On the mound, the Cubs are expected to start Jameson Taillon, who has had a rocky start to the season with a 1-1 record and an ERA of 6.97. However, his 4.48 xFIP suggests he might have been unlucky, and he could improve. Taillon’s projected 5.7 innings pitched and 2.6 earned runs allowed today indicate he may be due for a better outing. Conversely, the Rangers will counter with Patrick Corbin, who is ranked among the worst pitchers in MLB and projects for a concerning 4.9 innings with 2.9 earned runs.

With the Cubs favored at -155, the projections suggest they have a high implied team total of 4.39 runs, while the Rangers are projected for just 3.61 runs. Given the Cubs’ strong offensive capabilities and the Rangers’ struggles, this matchup looks favorable for Chicago as they aim to build on their recent success.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Patrick Corbin – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Because groundball batters have a substantial edge over flyball pitchers, Patrick Corbin and his 44.9% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a troublesome position today being matched up with 0 opposing GB batters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Wyatt Langford – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185)
  As it relates to his home runs, Wyatt Langford has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season. His 19.1 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been deflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 25.1.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• The Texas Rangers have been the unluckiest offense in baseball since the start of last season, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better in future games
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Jameson Taillon – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)
  It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Jameson Taillon has relied on his off-speed and breaking balls 10.1% less often this year (49.4%) than he did last season (59.5%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)
  Pete Crow-Armstrong has struggled with his Barrel%; his 8% rate last year has fallen to 0% this season.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Chicago Cubs – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Chicago Cubs’ bullpen projects as the 4th-worst out of all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 74 games at home (+12.20 Units / 15% ROI)
• Texas Rangers – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-120/-110)
  The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 13 of their last 24 games (+0.75 Units / 3% ROI)
• Adolis Garcia – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+110/-140)
  Adolis Garcia has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 80% ROI)