New York Mets
Philadelphia Phillies
(-110/-110)-155
As the Philadelphia Phillies prepare to host the New York Mets on September 13, 2024, the stakes are high in this National League East matchup. The Phillies currently sit atop the division with an impressive record of 88-58, while the Mets are a solid, but lesser, 80-66. The Phillies are riding high after a narrow victory over the Tampa Bay Rays, winning 3-2 on September 11, which marks the team’s momentum coming into this series opener. Conversely, the Mets also come off a win against the Toronto Blue Jays, where they showcased their power by scoring 6 runs.
The matchup features two contrasting pitchers: Aaron Nola for the Phillies and Jose Quintana for the Mets. Nola, who boasts a 12-7 record and a solid 3.41 ERA, is known for his ability to limit runs, despite hinting at some luck with a higher FIP of 4.01. In his most recent outing, Nola struggled slightly, allowing 4 earned runs over 5 innings. Meanwhile, Quintana, despite being one of the lower-ranked pitchers in MLB, pitched a stellar game in his last start, going 7 innings without allowing a run. However, his season ERA of 4.09 suggests he might not maintain that level of performance.
The Phillies’ offense ranks 4th in MLB, showcasing a dynamic lineup led by Kyle Schwarber, who has hit 35 home runs this season. As per the leading MLB projection system, the projections favor the Phillies significantly, estimating they will score around 4.84 runs against a Mets team projected to score approximately 4.06 runs. With the Phillies positioned as betting favorites at -155, this matchup presents an enticing opportunity for bettors to capitalize on their strong home-field advantage and potent offense.
New York Mets Insights
- Jose Quintana – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)Jose Quintana’s 90.1-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 5th percentile among all starters.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Mark Vientos – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Mark Vientos’s true offensive skill to be a .317, providing some evidence that he has been lucky this year given the .051 gap between that figure and his actual .368 wOBA.Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
- The 9.1% Barrel% of the New York Mets makes them the #5 team in baseball this year by this stat.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Philadelphia Phillies Insights
- Aaron Nola – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+160/-205)Aaron Nola has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording 6.0 more adjusted pitches-per-start than league average.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-165)Kyle Schwarber has made notable gains with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 15.2% seasonal rate to 32.3% in the past 14 days.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Bryce Harper – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)Bryce Harper has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 10th-shallowest LF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+100/-130)The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 46 games at home (+12.30 Units / 23% ROI)
- New York Mets – Run Line +1.5 (-155)The New York Mets have hit the Run Line in 50 of their last 88 games (+12.95 Units / 12% ROI)
- Kyle Schwarber – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+295/-430)Kyle Schwarber has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 8 games (+11.60 Units / 145% ROI)