Explore the Mariners vs Cubs Matchup Preview and Game Analysis – Sunday, June 22, 2025

Seattle Mariners

@

Chicago Cubs

On June 22, 2025, the Chicago Cubs will face off against the Seattle Mariners at Wrigley Field in the third game of their series. The Cubs are enjoying a solid season with a record of 46-30, while the Mariners sit at 38-37, having had an average year. In their last matchup, the Cubs emerged victorious with a 10-7 win, a game that showcased their offensive prowess.

Starting on the mound for the Cubs is Colin Rea, who has been somewhat inconsistent this season. With a Win/Loss record of 4-2 and an ERA of 3.84, Rea’s performance has been good, but his xERA of 4.94 suggests he may have been fortunate thus far. On the other hand, Logan Gilbert will take the mound for the Mariners. Gilbert has been impressive with a 2.55 ERA, ranking him as the 16th best starting pitcher in MLB, and he projects to pitch 5.6 innings today.

The Cubs’ offense ranks as the 4th best in MLB, bolstered by their power-hitting capabilities, evident from their 109 home runs this season, which is 5th overall. They also rank 3rd in stolen bases, adding another dimension to their offensive threat. Meanwhile, the Mariners boast a solid offense as well, ranking 10th in MLB, but their performance has been less consistent, especially with a batting average that sits at 18th.

While the Cubs may have a slightly weaker bullpen, ranked 23rd in MLB, their overall offensive strength and Rea’s ability to limit damage could give them an edge in this matchup. As the game total is set at a high 11.5 runs, bettors should keep an eye on how the powerful Cubs lineup responds against Gilbert’s groundball tendencies. The Cubs are currently listed at +110 on the moneyline, suggesting a close contest ahead.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Seattle Mariners – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-150)
  Logan Gilbert is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.1% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #22 HR venue among all parks today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Mitch Garver – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+135)
  Mitch Garver is penciled in 6th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 76% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 2.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  In today’s matchup, Cal Raleigh is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 5th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 43% rate (100th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Colin Rea – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)
  Colin Rea has relied on his four-seamer 27.3% more often this season (47.2%) than he did last year (19.9%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Reese McGuire – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)
  The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Reese McGuire stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• The Chicago Cubs have been the 3rd-luckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse in future games
  Explain: When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (+110)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 45 of their last 73 games (+11.15 Units / 10% ROI)
• Over/Under 11.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 61 games (+6.55 Units / 10% ROI)
• Ian Happ – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+130/-165)
  Ian Happ has hit the RBIs Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+7.30 Units / 122% ROI)