Explore the Mariners vs Cubs Matchup Preview and Game Analysis – Sunday, June 22, 2025

Seattle Mariners

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Chicago Cubs

As the Chicago Cubs and Seattle Mariners prepare for their matchup on June 22, 2025, both teams are looking to build momentum in this Interleague series. The Cubs currently hold a strong position at 46-30, while the Mariners sit at 38-37, marking a notable contrast in seasons. In their last game, the Cubs showcased their power with a strong offensive performance, contributing to their impressive record and solidifying their status as contenders.

In this contest, the Cubs will send Colin Rea to the mound, who has had a mixed season with a 4-2 record and a 3.84 ERA. This performance places him at #217 among starting pitchers, indicating he has struggled compared to his peers. Rea projects to pitch around 4.9 innings and is expected to allow approximately 3.5 earned runs, which could be a concern against a Mariners lineup that ranks 11th in MLB offensively, despite their average batting average.

On the other hand, Logan Gilbert will take the hill for the Mariners. With a 1-2 record and an impressive 2.55 ERA, Gilbert is ranked #17 among starting pitchers and is expected to throw around 5.5 innings, allowing about 3.3 earned runs. He has been somewhat unlucky this season, and the projections suggest he could improve.

The Cubs’ offense ranks 4th in MLB, generating significant run support, while the Mariners rank 11th overall. With both teams having high implied team totals of 5.75 runs, this game promises to be a high-scoring affair. The Cubs’ strong lineup and home-field advantage could tilt the scales in their favor, especially against a pitcher like Rea, who has struggled despite the team’s success.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• Seattle Mariners – -0.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line (+100)
  Logan Gilbert is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.1% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #22 HR venue among all parks today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
• Luke Raley – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+180)
  Luke Raley is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 77% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 2.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)
  In today’s matchup, Cal Raleigh is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 5th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 43% rate (100th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Colin Rea – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Colin Rea has relied on his four-seamer 27.3% more often this season (47.2%) than he did last year (19.9%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-130/+100)
  The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kyle Tucker has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-110)
  The Chicago Cubs projected lineup profiles as the 3rd-best on the slate today in terms of overall batting ability.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-110)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the Moneyline in 45 of their last 73 games (+11.15 Units / 10% ROI)
• Over/Under 11.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 34 of their last 61 games (+6.55 Units / 10% ROI)
• Cal Raleigh – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+145/-190)
  Cal Raleigh has hit the Singles Over in 12 of his last 25 games (+5.00 Units / 20% ROI)