Explore the Guardians vs Cubs Matchup Preview and Game Analysis – Tuesday, July 1, 2025

Cleveland Guardians

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Chicago Cubs

As the Chicago Cubs prepare to face off against the Cleveland Guardians on July 1, 2025, at Wrigley Field, both teams are looking to bounce back from disappointing outings. The Cubs, boasting a solid 49-35 record this season, are coming off a 2-0 loss to the New York Mets on June 29. Meanwhile, the Guardians, sitting at 40-42, suffered a more lopsided defeat, falling 7-0 to the Kansas City Royals in their last game.

This interleague matchup marks the first game of the series, and the Cubs are projected to send left-handed pitcher Matthew Boyd to the mound. Boyd has been impressive this season, with a 7-3 record and an excellent 2.65 ERA. His strong performance is backed by advanced metrics, ranking him as the 42nd best starting pitcher in MLB. Additionally, he has been particularly effective in his last start, pitching six innings with no earned runs, three strikeouts, and only three hits allowed.

On the other side, the Guardians will counter with right-hander Gavin Williams, who holds a 5-3 record and a good 3.68 ERA. However, his recent start was less than stellar, as he allowed three earned runs over five innings against the Royals. The projections indicate that Boyd is expected to pitch around 5.4 innings while giving up 2.2 earned runs, whereas Williams is projected to allow 2.8 earned runs in about 5.1 innings.

Offensively, the Cubs rank 4th in MLB with a powerful lineup that excels in both batting average and home runs, while the Guardians struggle at 25th overall. With the Cubs’ potent offense facing a mediocre Guardians pitching staff, they hold a significant advantage. The Cubs are favored with a moneyline of -190, suggesting they could surpass their projected team total of 4.89 runs, while the Guardians are up against a tough challenge with a low implied team total of 3.61 runs.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Gavin Williams – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125)
  Given that groundball pitchers struggle the most against flyball hitters, Gavin Williams (42.8% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this matchup with 2 FB hitters in Chicago’s projected batting order.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Nolan Jones – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Nolan Jones has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% recently, improving his 9.4% seasonal rate to 30% in the past week.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Jose Ramirez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.6% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 6th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Chicago Cubs Insights

• Matthew Boyd – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  The Cleveland Guardians have 6 bats in the projected offense that will hold the platoon advantage against Matthew Boyd in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Dansby Swanson – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Dansby Swanson has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90.1-mph dropping to 86.7-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Chicago Cubs – Moneyline (-200)
  The 2nd-best projected offense on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability belongs to the Chicago Cubs.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Betting Trends

• Chicago Cubs – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-205)
  The Chicago Cubs have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 21 of their last 37 games at home (+9.45 Units / 15% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 14 of their last 18 away games (+10.60 Units / 52% ROI)
• Lane Thomas – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+110/-140)
  Lane Thomas has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 8 of his last 9 away games (+6.70 Units / 54% ROI)