Explore the Game Breakdown: Yankees vs Nationals Team Stats and Insights – 8/28/2024

New York Yankees

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Washington Nationals

The Washington Nationals will face the New York Yankees on August 28, 2024, in a pivotal Interleague matchup at Nationals Park. Both teams are coming off a game yesterday, where the Nationals pulled off a surprising victory against the Yankees with a score of 4-2. The Yankees, currently 3rd in the American League East, hold a record of 78-55 and are enjoying a strong season, while the Nationals, with a record of 60-73, are struggling and don’t appear to be contending.

On the mound, the Nationals will start MacKenzie Gore, who has had an up-and-down season, marked by a Win/Loss record of 7-11 and an average ERA of 4.51. Although Gore’s recent performance has shown promise—he pitched solidly in his last start, going 6 innings with 1 earned run—he remains ranked only 142nd among starting pitchers in MLB. He projects to be vulnerable today, expected to allow an average of 3.1 earned runs while pitching just 4.8 innings.

The Yankees counter with Carlos Rodon, who stands at a much higher rank of 83rd among MLB starters. Rodon has been solid this year, posting a 14-8 record with a 4.16 ERA. His last outing was impressive as well; he pitched 6 innings without allowing any earned runs. The projections favor Rodon, as he’s expected to pitch approximately 5.8 innings while allowing 2.6 earned runs.

The Nationals have struggled offensively, ranking 22nd in MLB, and have hit the 2nd fewest home runs. Meanwhile, the Yankees boast the 1st best offense in the league, with Aaron Judge leading the charge. He continues to be a force, racking up impressive stats, including 51 home runs this season. Despite their recent win, the Nationals are underdogs today, with a low implied team total of 3.65 runs compared to the Yankees’ high projection of 5.35 runs. The contrast in offense and pitching prowess suggests that the Yankees should have the upper hand in this matchup.

New York Yankees Insights

• Carlos Rodon – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+135/-175)
  Carlos Rodon’s 94.9-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 82nd percentile out of all starting pitchers.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Alex Verdugo – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+145)
  Alex Verdugo is projected to bat 9th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 65% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• New York Yankees – Moneyline (-220)
  The best projected lineup of all teams on the slate in terms of overall hitting ability belongs to the New York Yankees.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Washington Nationals Insights

• MacKenzie Gore – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+130/-170)
  MacKenzie Gore has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying 6.3 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average hurler.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Keibert Ruiz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Keibert Ruiz’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined this season; his 89.9-mph EV last year has fallen to 87.1-mph.
  Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
• Washington Nationals – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Washington Nationals’ bullpen ranks as the 2nd-worst among all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Washington Nationals – Run Line +1.5 (+115)
  The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 65 of their last 116 games (+7.00 Units / 5% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 60 of their last 102 games (+16.45 Units / 15% ROI)
• Austin Wells – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Austin Wells has hit the Total Bases Over in 17 of his last 23 games (+12.85 Units / 44% ROI)