Explore the Game Breakdown: Yankees vs Cardinals Team Stats and Insights – 8/17/2025

New York Yankees

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St. Louis Cardinals

On August 17, 2025, the St. Louis Cardinals will host the New York Yankees for the third game of their interleague series at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals enter the matchup with a record of 61-63, showcasing an average season, while the Yankees, at 66-57, are enjoying an above-average campaign and currently sit in a stronger position in the standings. In their previous encounter, the Yankees topped the Cardinals 12-8, adding momentum to their success.

Miles Mikolas is projected to take the mound for the Cardinals. Despite an ERA of 4.97 and a subpar Power Ranking at 188th among MLB starters, Mikolas recently pitched well in a 7-inning outing, allowing only 2 earned runs. However, he faces a daunting challenge against a Yankees offense that ranks 2nd best in MLB this season—optimized by their league-leading 195 home runs. Mikolas has struggled with fly balls this year, which could be particularly harmful against such a powerhouse offense.

On the other hand, Will Warren is slated to start for the Yankees, boasting a better Win/Loss record of 7-5 and a respectable 4.34 ERA. Warren’s projection reflects his potential to outperform his ERA, as indicated by a 3.60 xFIP, suggesting he could improve further. Both pitchers project to allow a high number of hits, but Warren’s slightly higher strikeout projection might give him the edge.

Given the current odds, St. Louis is an underdog with a moneyline of +125, while New York stands as the favorite at -150. The Cardinals are known for their below-average offense, ranked 20th overall, which could make scoring against the Yankees’ strong bullpen a challenge. With a high game total set at 9.0 runs, betting strategies will need to consider the pitching matchup closely.

New York Yankees Insights

• Will Warren – Over/Under 16.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  Recording 14.7 outs per GS this year on average, Will Warren falls in the 22nd percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+160/-210)
  As it relates to his batting average ability, Aaron Judge is projected as the 4th-best hitter in baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
• New York Yankees – Moneyline (-160)
  The New York Yankees projected lineup grades out as the strongest on the slate in terms of overall offensive skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

St. Louis Cardinals Insights

• Miles Mikolas – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Miles Mikolas has relied on his off-speed and breaking balls 6.3% more often this season (55.3%) than he did last season (49%).
  Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
• Nolan Gorman – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-125/-105)
  Nolan Gorman is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 77% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• St. Louis Cardinals bats jointly place 21st- in the league for power this year when judging by their 8% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• St. Louis Cardinals – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-140/+110)
  The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 48 of their last 82 games (+8.95 Units / 9% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 26 of their last 44 games (+8.25 Units / 17% ROI)
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+160/-210)
  Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 25 games (+5.55 Units / 16% ROI)