Explore the Game Breakdown: Tigers vs Rockies Team Stats and Insights – 5/07/2025

Detroit Tigers

@

Colorado Rockies

As the Colorado Rockies prepare to host the Detroit Tigers on May 7, 2025, they find themselves in the midst of a dismal season, boasting a record of 6-28. Meanwhile, the Tigers are riding high with a 22-13 record, fresh off a dominant 13-1 victory in their last game. This Interleague matchup marks the first of the series and presents a compelling clash of fortunes.

Chase Dollander, projected to start for the Rockies, has had an average season, ranking as the 111th best starting pitcher in MLB. With a Win/Loss record of 2-3 and an ERA of 6.48, his recent performances have been inconsistent. However, he did pitch well in his last start on April 30, going six innings with only one earned run. Unfortunately for Dollander, he faces a potent Tigers offense that ranks 6th in MLB, including a staggering 47 home runs this season.

On the other side, Jackson Jobe, who has started five games with a perfect record of 2-0 and a solid ERA of 3.38, is projected to start for the Tigers. Jobe’s ability to induce ground balls (49% GB rate) could work in his favor against a Rockies lineup that struggles with power, ranking 5th least in home runs this season. However, his high walk rate may present an opportunity for the Rockies if they can capitalize on his control issues.

With the Rockies’ offense ranked 30th in MLB and their bullpen considered the 10th best, they will need to find a way to support Dollander. The projections suggest that this game could see a total of 10.0 runs, with the Tigers favored to score around 5.53 runs. Despite their current struggles, the Rockies have a chance to surprise if they can elevate their performance against a Tigers team that may have some vulnerabilities.

Detroit Tigers Insights

• Jackson Jobe – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Among all starting pitchers, Jackson Jobe’s fastball velocity of 96 mph ranks in the 93rd percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Zach McKinstry – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-170)
  Zach McKinstry is certain to hold the advantage against every reliever the entire game as none of the available options for the Colorado Rockies share his handedness.
  Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
• The leading projection system (THE BAT X) forecasts that the Detroit Tigers will tally 5.19 runs on average in this matchup: the 2nd-most of all teams playing today.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like player quality, ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Colorado Rockies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+110)
  Chase Dollander is an extreme flyball pitcher (35.9% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #5 HR venue among all parks in this matchup.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Hunter Goodman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)
  Hunter Goodman has had some very good luck with with his wOBA this year; his .350 mark is quite a bit higher than his .280 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.
• Today’s version of the Rockies projected offense is a bit watered down, as their .297 the leading projection system (THE BAT X) wOBA is considerably below their .315 overall projected rate.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Team Total Under in 22 of their last 33 games (+9.32 Units / 24% ROI)
• Detroit Tigers – Moneyline (-165)
  The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 29 games (+9.15 Units / 21% ROI)
• Brenton Doyle – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-135/+105)
  Brenton Doyle has hit the Singles Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+7.05 Units / 67% ROI)