Explore the Game Breakdown: Reds vs Pirates Team Stats and Insights – 8/23/2024

Cincinnati Reds

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Pittsburgh Pirates

As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to face the Cincinnati Reds on August 23, 2024, both squads are looking to improve their below-average records. The Pirates sit at 60-67 while the Reds are slightly better at 62-66, making this matchup a critical one for both teams as they strive to find some late-season momentum.

In their last encounter on August 22, 2024, the Pirates delivered a dominant performance, shutting out the Reds with a decisive 7-0 victory. This strong showing could provide a psychological edge heading into the second game of the series, especially since the Pirates’ starter, Bailey Falter, pitched well in his previous outing. On August 17, he went six innings, allowing just two earned runs while striking out eight batters.

Falter, however, is projected to struggle against a Reds offense that ranks 5th in the league in strikeouts. With an ERA of 4.02 and a below-average projection of 4.8 innings pitched today, Falter’s effectiveness may be tested against a lineup that features Elly De La Cruz, who has been a standout performer this season with 22 home runs and 60 stolen bases.

On the mound for Cincinnati, Buck Farmer has shown promise with an excellent ERA of 2.67, although his 4.71 xFIP suggests he might not maintain that level. The projections indicate a competitive game, with the Pirates projected to score 4.95 runs and the Reds 4.74 runs on average. The leading MLB projection system gives the Pirates a win probability of 55%, slightly above their implied probability of 51%. This hints at an opportunity for the Pirates to capitalize on their recent success and build on their momentum against a Reds team still seeking consistency.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

• Santiago Espinal – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+160/-210)
  Santiago Espinal has been very fortunate when it comes to his home runs this year; his 17.3 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is inflated compared to his 5.8 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.
  Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
• Stuart Fairchild – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Stuart Fairchild pulls many of his flyballs (34.7% — 85th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball’s 9th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Bailey Falter – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+145/-190)
  Bailey Falter’s fastball velocity has jumped 1.2 mph this year (91.3 mph) over where it was last season (90.1 mph).
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+200/-270)
  Isiah Kiner-Falefa is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 78% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Pittsburgh Pirates have been the 4th-unluckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress going forward
  Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Run Line -1.5 (+175)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 48 of their last 81 games (+15.15 Units / 15% ROI)
• Cincinnati Reds – Run Line +1.5 (-205)
  The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Run Line in 68 of their last 122 games (+7.25 Units / 4% ROI)
• Santiago Espinal – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-215/+165)
  Santiago Espinal has hit the Hits Over in 17 of his last 19 games (+14.75 Units / 42% ROI)