Cincinnati Reds
Philadelphia Phillies
(-120/+100)-240
As the Philadelphia Phillies prepare to host the Cincinnati Reds on July 6, 2025, they find themselves in solid shape with a record of 52-37, putting them firmly in playoff contention. The Reds, on the other hand, sit at 46-43 and are having an above-average season but are not currently in the playoff conversation. This matchup is particularly significant as it’s the third game of the series, and both teams will be looking to gain momentum.
In their most recent meeting, the Phillies emerged victorious, showcasing their powerful offense. The Phillies’ lineup ranks 9th in MLB and boasts a stellar 5th place in team batting average. This offensive strength is complemented by ace Zack Wheeler, who is projected to start for Philadelphia. Wheeler, ranked as the 3rd best starting pitcher in MLB, has been a force on the mound, sporting an impressive 2.27 ERA and an 8-3 win/loss record over 17 starts. He is projected to pitch 6.0 innings while allowing just 2.1 earned runs, which is likely to challenge the Reds’ bats.
On the opposing side, Chase Burns is set to take the mound for Cincinnati. Although he has had a rough start to the season with a 0-1 record and a troubling 13.50 ERA, projections suggest he could improve, given his 3.42 xFIP. However, the challenges facing Burns will be significant, especially against a potent lineup like Philadelphia’s.
As the Phillies are favored with a moneyline of -230, the expectations are high. With an implied team total of 5.08 runs and the Reds sitting at 3.42, this game is shaping up to be a test of strength for both the pitcher’s prowess and the offensive capabilities. With Wheeler’s elite status on the mound and the Phillies’ overall strong season, the odds favor a Philadelphia victory in this critical matchup.
Cincinnati Reds Insights
- Chase Burns – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)In his previous GS, Chase Burns was in good form and put up 8 strikeouts.Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
- Tyler Stephenson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)Tyler Stephenson has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 12.5% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% over the past week.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- The Cincinnati Reds have 4 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Elly De La Cruz, Will Benson, Tyler Stephenson, Matt McLain).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Philadelphia Phillies Insights
- Zack Wheeler – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+115/-145)Compared to the average pitcher, Zack Wheeler has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an additional 8.1 adjusted pitches each game.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Bryson Stott – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)Bryson Stott has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.2-mph dropping to 84.8-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- Philadelphia Phillies hitters as a unit rank among the best in the majors this year (6th-) when assessing their 89.7-mph average exit velocity.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Betting Trends
- Philadelphia Phillies – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-275)The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 45 of their last 85 games (+12.55 Units / 9% ROI)
- Cincinnati Reds – Moneyline (+205)The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 26 of their last 45 games (+7.60 Units / 15% ROI)
- Matt McLain – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (+105/-135)Matt McLain has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 17 of his last 25 away games (+8.10 Units / 25% ROI)