Explore the Game Breakdown: Red Sox vs Rockies Team Stats and Insights – 7/24/2024

Boston Red Sox

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Colorado Rockies

The Colorado Rockies and Boston Red Sox clash in the third game of their interleague series on July 24, 2024, at Coors Field. The Rockies are enduring a rough season with a 37-65 record, while the Red Sox are having an above-average year at 54-46. This matchup features two right-handed pitchers: Cal Quantrill for the Rockies and Nick Pivetta for the Red Sox.

Quantrill, ranked #151 among MLB starting pitchers according to advanced stats, has had a challenging season with a 6-7 record and a 4.15 ERA. His peripheral stats, such as a 4.66 FIP, suggest he has been somewhat fortunate this year and may face regression. Quantrill’s projections for this game aren’t promising, with an expected 5.4 innings pitched, 3.5 earned runs allowed, and 4.4 strikeouts. He will be up against a potent Red Sox lineup, which ranks 6th in MLB in overall offense, 4th in batting average, and 8th in home runs.

On the other side, Pivetta, ranked #76 among MLB starting pitchers, has been solid this season with a 4-6 record and a 3.87 ERA. His 3.26 SIERA indicates he’s been unlucky and could perform better moving forward. Pivetta is projected to pitch 5.2 innings, allow 3.1 earned runs, and strike out 5.8 batters. He faces a Rockies offense that ranks 14th in overall offense and batting average and 13th in home runs but is 3rd in strikeouts, which aligns with Pivetta’s strength as a high-strikeout pitcher.

The Rockies’ bullpen is ranked 22nd, while the Red Sox’s bullpen is even worse at 25th. This could lead to a high-scoring affair, especially with a game total set at 10.5 runs. The Red Sox, favored with a moneyline of -160, have an implied win probability of 59%, while the Rockies are underdogs at +135, with a 41% implied win probability.

Ezequiel Tovar has been the Rockies’ standout hitter over the last week, boasting a .400 batting average and 1.100 OPS. For the Red Sox, Tyler O’Neill has been on fire, hitting .435 with a 1.458 OPS, including four home runs in his last five games.

Given the Red Sox’s superior season performance and Pivetta’s potential for positive regression, they look poised to capitalize on the Rockies’ struggles and secure a victory in this matchup.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Boston Red Sox – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-160)
  In his previous GS, Nick Pivetta was firing on all cylinders and conceded 0 ER.
  Explain: A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.
• David Hamilton – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+180/-235)
  David Hamilton is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 69% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected offense for the Boston Red Sox in this game owns an estimated true talent wOBA of .304, which is considerably lower than their actual wOBA of .324 this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Colorado Rockies Insights

• Cal Quantrill – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)
  Cal Quantrill has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying 4.6 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than league average.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Ryan McMahon – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Ryan McMahon’s average exit velocity has dropped off lately; his 93.3-mph seasonal mark has decreased to 76.4-mph in the last 7 days.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Colorado Rockies – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Colorado Rockies’ bullpen profiles as the 8th-worst among all the teams in the majors.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Colorado Rockies – Run Line +1.5 (-125)
  The Colorado Rockies have hit the Run Line in 11 of their last 15 games at home (+6.45 Units / 35% ROI)
• Over/Under 10.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 31 of their last 55 games (+7.80 Units / 13% ROI)
• Ezequiel Tovar – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (-135/+105)
  Ezequiel Tovar has hit the Singles Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+8.05 Units / 62% ROI)