Explore the Game Breakdown: Mariners vs Pirates Team Stats and Insights – 8/18/2024

Seattle Mariners

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Pittsburgh Pirates

As the Pittsburgh Pirates prepare to host the Seattle Mariners on August 18, 2024, both teams come off a significant battle just a day prior, where the Pirates emerged victorious with a 7-2 win. This matchup is critical for both teams, as the Mariners seek to maintain their grip on an average season with a 63-61 record, while the Pirates linger below average at 58-64.

On the mound for the Pirates will be Jake Woodford, who has struggled this season, posting a 0-4 record and a dismal ERA of 5.87. Despite his low strikeout rate of 13.7%, he may find some advantage against the Mariners, who lead MLB with the most strikeouts. Woodford’s projected performance suggests he could pitch around 4.7 innings while allowing an average of 3.0 earned runs, which raises concerns about his effectiveness.

Opposing him will be George Kirby, a strong 16th ranked starting pitcher in MLB, boasting an impressive 3.42 ERA. Though Kirby faced challenges in his last outing, surrendering 6 earned runs over 4 innings, he is still projected to perform well against a sputtering Pirates offense that ranks 26th overall. The projections anticipate Kirby will pitch approximately 5.6 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs, making him a likely candidate to lead the Mariners to victory.

Also working against Pittsburgh is their offense, which has ranked poorly this season, notably 26th in team batting average. In contrast, while the Mariners sit at 28th overall offensively, they’re bolstered by their ability to hit home runs, ranking 14th in that regard.

Seattle Mariners Insights

• George Kirby – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-180/+140)
  George Kirby has tallied 17.4 outs per outing this year, checking in at the 82nd percentile.
  Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
• Julio Rodriguez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Julio Rodriguez’s true offensive skill to be a .359, providing some evidence that he has experienced some negative variance this year given the .055 deviation between that figure and his actual .304 wOBA.
  Explain: Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.
• George Kirby – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Cal Raleigh (the Mariners’s expected catcher in today’s game) is considered to be an elite pitch framer.
  Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

• Jake Woodford – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  The Seattle Mariners have 6 batters in the projected lineup that will have the handedness advantage over Jake Woodford today, which is especially troublesome given his large platoon split.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Bryan De La Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-195/+150)
  Bryan De La Cruz is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 91% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• The 8.5% Barrel% of the Pittsburgh Pirates ranks them as the #9 club in the league this year by this standard.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Betting Trends

• Pittsburgh Pirates – Run Line +1.5 (-110)
  The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 46 of their last 79 games (+12.65 Units / 13% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-105/-115)
  The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 21 of their last 34 away games (+7.85 Units / 21% ROI)
• Isiah Kiner-Falefa – Over/Under 1.5 Hits (+185/-245)
  Isiah Kiner-Falefa has hit the Hits Over in 37 of his last 49 games (+20.25 Units / 21% ROI)