Explore the Game Breakdown: D-Backs vs Brewers Team Stats and Insights – 9/21/2024

Arizona Diamondbacks

@

Milwaukee Brewers

As the Milwaukee Brewers and Arizona Diamondbacks prepare for their matchup on September 21, 2024, both teams find themselves in the thick of the National League playoff race. The Brewers, boasting an 88-66 record, are having a solid season, while the D-Backs, with an 86-68 record, are close on their trail. The D-Backs have the edge in recent performance, having bested the Brewers 7-4 in their last matchup on September 20.

This contest features Aaron Civale on the mound for Milwaukee and Merrill Kelly for Arizona. Civale, a right-hander, enters the game with a 7-8 record and an average 4.48 ERA. Despite being ranked #144 among MLB starting pitchers, his recent start showed promise as he allowed just one earned run over five innings. Kelly, meanwhile, is enjoying an undefeated 4-0 record this season with a good 4.00 ERA but shows signs of potential regression with a higher xERA of 5.46. Both pitchers have struggled with allowing hits and walks, setting the table for potential offensive fireworks.

Offensively, Milwaukee has been powered by Willy Adames, while William Contreras has been hot, boasting a .429 batting average and 1.310 OPS over the past week. The Brewers’ lineup is equipped with the 3rd-most stolen bases in MLB, providing a dynamic threat on the basepaths. The D-Backs, however, have the league’s top-ranked offense, with standout performances from Corbin Carroll and a power surge from Randal Grichuk, who has hit .455 with a 1.682 OPS over the last week.

The Brewers are slight favorites with a moneyline of -115, translating to a 51% implied win probability. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, sees this as a virtual toss-up, giving both teams a 50% win probability. Interestingly, the projections suggest a higher scoring output for Arizona, indicating they might capitalize on Civale’s penchant for flyballs against their power-laden lineup. With both teams vying for postseason positioning, expect an intense battle at American Family Field.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Merrill Kelly – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  Recording 92.9 adjusted pitches per game per started this year on average, Merrill Kelly ranks in the 79th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Ketel Marte – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Ketel Marte has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 93.8-mph average to last year’s 91.1-mph EV.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline
  The Arizona Diamondbacks bullpen profiles as the best in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Aaron Civale – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-155/+120)
  Aaron Civale has used his cutter 5.9% less often this season (31.5%) than he did last year (37.4%).
  Explain: Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.
• Sal Frelick – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Sal Frelick is an extreme groundball hitter and squares off against the strong infield defense of Arizona (#2-best of the day).
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
• Jake Bauers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110)
  Jake Bauers pulls many of his flyballs (35.2% — 88th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 7th-deepest RF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the Game Total Over in 78 of their last 151 games (+9.50 Units / 6% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 70 of their last 112 games (+26.65 Units / 22% ROI)
• Joc Pederson – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+340/-500)
  Joc Pederson has hit the Home Runs Over in 11 of his last 43 games (+9.65 Units / 22% ROI)