Explore the Game Breakdown: Blue Jays vs Giants Team Stats and Insights – (7/11/2024

Toronto Blue Jays

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San Francisco Giants

The San Francisco Giants and the Toronto Blue Jays clash at Oracle Park on July 11, 2024, in the final game of their three-game series. Both teams are having below-average seasons, with the Giants holding a 45-48 record and the Blue Jays at 42-50. The Giants dropped their last game against the Blue Jays on July 10 by a 10-6 score. Despite being favored with a -155 Moneyline, they couldn’t hold off the Blue Jays, who were +135 underdogs.

Jordan Hicks will take the mound for the Giants. Ranked as the 90th best starting pitcher in MLB, Hicks has been solid with a 3.47 ERA but might be riding a wave of good fortune given his 4.06 xFIP. In his last start on July 3, Hicks pitched 5 innings, allowing 3 earned runs. The Giants’ bullpen, ranked 4th according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, should provide strong support if Hicks stumbles early.

Kevin Gausman starts for the Blue Jays. Ranked 52nd among MLB starting pitchers, Gausman has a 4.64 ERA this season but has been unlucky, as indicated by his lower 3.70 xFIP. His recent performance on July 5 was impressive, going 6 innings with 2 earned runs and 10 strikeouts. Although the Blue Jays’ bullpen is 24th in the league, Gausman’s ability to go deep into games could lessen the bullpen’s impact.

Offensively, the Giants are average, ranking 14th overall. They have the 15th best batting average but struggle with power, sitting 21st in home runs. Michael Conforto has been their standout hitter over the last week, with a .300 average and 8 RBIs. The Blue Jays, on the other hand, rank 20th offensively and are particularly poor in power, ranking 28th in home runs. However, Alejandro Kirk has been red-hot recently, hitting .533 over the last week.

The leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, favors the Giants to win this game, projecting a 56% win probability compared to the implied 54% from their -130 Moneyline. The Giants are projected to score 4.22 runs, slightly above their implied total, while the Blue Jays are projected to score 3.96 runs. Given Gausman’s low-walk rate against the Giants’ patient offense, the matchup might tilt slightly in San Francisco’s favor.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Kevin Gausman – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+160/-210)
  Kevin Gausman has been given an above-average leash this year, recording 7.8 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average hurler.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Justin Turner – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+160/-210)
  Extreme groundball bats like Justin Turner are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Jordan Hicks.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 3rd-least strikeout-prone lineup in today’s games is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 19.7% underlying K%.
  Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Jordan Hicks – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100/-130)
  Due to his large platoon split, Jordan Hicks will be at an advantage being matched up with 7 bats in the projected lineup who share the same handedness in today’s game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Wilmer Flores – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-165/+130)
  Wilmer Flores has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (87% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the lineup in today’s game.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• San Francisco Giants – 2H Moneyline
  The San Francisco Giants bullpen ranks as the 4th-best in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 51 games (+12.25 Units / 22% ROI)
• Toronto Blue Jays – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Team Total Under in 41 of their last 72 games (+6.90 Units / 8% ROI)
• Jorge Soler – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-205/+155)
  Jorge Soler has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 22 games at home (+6.80 Units / 29% ROI)