Explore the Blue Jays vs Red Sox Matchup Preview and Game Analysis – Sunday, June 29, 2025

Toronto Blue Jays

@

Boston Red Sox

As the Boston Red Sox and the Toronto Blue Jays clash on June 29, 2025, both teams find themselves in an interesting dynamic. The Red Sox, currently sitting at 41-43, are having an average season, while the Blue Jays boast a record of 44-38, placing them slightly above average. Both teams are looking for crucial victories, especially in this American League East matchup that carries weight in the standings.

In their last meeting, the Red Sox fell short against the Blue Jays, which adds a layer of urgency to this game. The Red Sox will rely on Walker Buehler, who has had a rocky season with a Win/Loss record of 5-5 and an ERA of 6.29. Despite his struggles, advanced statistics project he may perform better in the near future due to some unfortunate luck this season. However, Buehler’s low strikeout percentage could pose a challenge against the Blue Jays, who have the least strikeouts in MLB.

Eric Lauer, on the other hand, will take the mound for the Blue Jays, entering this game with an impressive ERA of 2.21 and a Win/Loss record of 4-1. Though Lauer has been solid, his projections suggest he might be due for a regression. The Red Sox offense ranks as the 10th best in MLB, which should give them a fighting chance against Lauer’s left-handed pitching.

The betting odds indicate a close contest, with the Red Sox holding a moneyline of +100 and an implied team total of 4.64 runs, while the Blue Jays sit at -120 with an implied total of 4.86 runs. As they meet for the third time this series, the Red Sox may aim to leverage their home-field advantage while hoping to capitalize on any weaknesses shown by the Blue Jays’ starter.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Eric Lauer – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)
  Due to his reverse platoon split, Eric Lauer will be at an advantage matching up with 7 bats in the projected batting order who hit from the other side today.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Nathan Lukes – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+150/-195)
  Extreme groundball batters like Nathan Lukes tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Walker Buehler.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Bo Bichette – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Bo Bichette has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards baseball’s 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Walker Buehler – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Walker Buehler’s 93.5-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a substantial 1.6-mph decrease from last year’s 95.1-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Carlos Narvaez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)
  Carlos Narvaez is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 61% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The Boston Red Sox have 3 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Trevor Story, Carlos Narvaez, Wilyer Abreu).
  Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 38 games at home (+6.45 Units / 15% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 50 games (+15.45 Units / 28% ROI)
• Ceddanne Rafaela – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+120/-155)
  Ceddanne Rafaela has hit the Runs Over in 5 of his last 8 games (+4.90 Units / 61% ROI)