Explore the Blue Jays vs Red Sox Matchup Preview and Game Analysis – Sunday, June 29, 2025

Toronto Blue Jays

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Boston Red Sox

As the Boston Red Sox prepare to face the Toronto Blue Jays on June 29, 2025, both teams are looking to capitalize in this critical American League East matchup. The Red Sox, currently at 41-43, are hoping to build on their momentum after a dominant 15-1 victory over the Blue Jays in the previous game. Meanwhile, Toronto, with a stronger record of 44-38, is coming off this lopsided loss and trying to bounce back.

On the mound, the Red Sox are set to start Walker Buehler, a right-handed pitcher with a middle-of-the-road ERA of 6.29 after 13 starts this season. Despite his struggles, projections suggest he may have faced some bad luck, indicating potential improvement. However, Buehler’s performance against a Blue Jays offense that ranks 1st in the league in limiting strikeouts could pose challenges, as he typically thrives on high-strikeout outings.

On the other side, Eric Lauer of the Blue Jays, a left-handed pitcher, comes in with an impressive 2.21 ERA across 6 starts and has shown strong form in his last appearance, allowing just 1 earned run in 5 innings. However, projections highlight that he may be overperforming, suggesting some regression could be on the horizon.

The Red Sox offense ranks 8th overall in MLB and boasts a solid performance when it comes to home runs, while the Blue Jays find themselves ranked 12th overall, struggling with power as evidenced by their 21st rank in home runs. With both teams having high implied totals of 4.75 runs, bettors should consider the dynamics created by the pitching matchups. If Buehler can harness his potential and the Red Sox’s offense can stay hot, they could pull off another win against a Blue Jays team looking to regain its footing.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

• Eric Lauer – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Due to his large reverse platoon split, Eric Lauer will be at an advantage matching up with 7 bats in the projected batting order who hit from the other side today.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Nathan Lukes – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Extreme groundball batters like Nathan Lukes tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Walker Buehler.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Bo Bichette – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Bo Bichette has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards baseball’s 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Boston Red Sox Insights

• Walker Buehler – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-105/-125)
  Walker Buehler’s 93.5-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a substantial 1.6-mph decrease from last year’s 95.1-mph mark.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.
• Carlos Narvaez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-245/+185)
  Carlos Narvaez is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 61% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• The underlying talent of the Boston Red Sox projected offense today (.309 projected wOBA per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) figures to be a good deal worse than their .320 wOBA this year.
  Explain: Betting lines are often based on seasonal team quality. If today’s lineup is watered down, however, there may be value if markets aren’t accounting for the lower quality of this offense.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 23 of their last 38 games at home (+6.45 Units / 15% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 50 games (+15.45 Units / 28% ROI)
• Jarren Duran – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+115/-145)
  Jarren Duran has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 25 games (+5.60 Units / 17% ROI)