
Houston Astros

Athletics
(-110/-110)+155
On June 18, 2025, the Oakland Athletics will host the Houston Astros at Sutter Health Park in a pivotal American League West matchup. The Athletics are struggling this season with a record of 30-45, while the Astros are thriving at 42-31. In their last game, the Athletics fell to the Astros, continuing their disappointing streak.
The Athletics are projected to start Luis Severino, who has had a rough year, posting a 2-6 record and a 4.47 ERA. Despite the average ERA, his 3.71 FIP suggests he may have been unlucky, leading to hopes of better performances ahead. However, he faces a tough challenge against the Astros, who rank as one of the least strikeout-prone offenses in the league. Severino’s low strikeout percentage (15.6 K%) could hinder his ability to exploit this advantage.
On the other hand, the Astros will counter with Framber Valdez, an elite left-handed pitcher with a 7-4 record and a stellar 3.10 ERA. Valdez’s projections show he is likely to pitch around 6.1 innings and allow just 2.6 earned runs, which could put the Athletics’ offense to the test. While their offense ranks 8th in MLB for batting average and 6th in home runs, they also rank 23rd in stolen bases, indicating a lack of speed on the basepaths.
Despite the Athletics’ struggles, they have a solid offensive core and are projected to score around 4.27 runs. However, the Astros’ implied team total of 5.23 runs suggests they will be the favorites in this matchup. With a strong bullpen ranked 8th in MLB, the Astros have the depth to maintain their lead late in the game, making them a compelling choice for bettors looking to capitalize on this matchup.
Houston Astros Insights
- Houston Astros – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-180)Framber Valdez is an extreme groundball pitcher (58.3% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Sutter Health Park — the #9 HR venue in Major League Baseball — today.Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
- Mauricio Dubon – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+155/-205)Mauricio Dubon’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 87.2-mph figure last season has fallen off to 84.7-mph.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- Houston Astros – 2H MoneylineAccording to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Houston Astros’ bullpen projects as the 9th-best out of all teams in the majors.Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.
Athletics Insights
- Luis Severino – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Luis Severino has gone to his off-speed and breaking pitches 12.2% more often this year (51.9%) than he did last season (39.7%).Explain: A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.
- Brent Rooker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155)Extreme groundball hitters like Brent Rooker tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Framber Valdez.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Luis Urias – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)Today, Luis Urias is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 6th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 37.8% rate (96th percentile).Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Athletics – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (-140/+110)The Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 23 of their last 34 games (+9.67 Units / 22% ROI)
- Houston Astros – Over/Under 5.5 Team Total (+100/-130)The Houston Astros have hit the Team Total Under in 44 of their last 73 games (+12.20 Units / 14% ROI)
- Cam Smith – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-280/+205)Cam Smith has hit the Hits Over in 9 of his last 10 games (+7.20 Units / 38% ROI)