Los Angeles Angels
Detroit Tigers
(-105/-115)-175
The Detroit Tigers will host the Los Angeles Angels on August 29, 2024, in what is shaping up to be an intriguing matchup. The Tigers are currently sitting at 68-66, having just edged out the Angels 3-2 in their previous encounter. Meanwhile, the Angels, struggling with a 54-79 record, are having a dismal season and have been eliminated from winning their division.
On the mound, the Tigers are projected to start Keider Montero, who has had an up-and-down year, boasting a 4-5 record and a 5.15 ERA across 12 starts. Montero’s last outing was solid, allowing only 2 earned runs over 5 innings. Despite his low ranking as the 280th best starting pitcher in MLB, projections suggest he could outperform his ERA due to some bad luck earlier in the season.
Opposing him will be Jack Kochanowicz for the Angels, who has struggled even more, with a 1-3 record and a 6.08 ERA in 5 starts. In his last appearance, Kochanowicz pitched 6 innings, allowing 3 earned runs. His performance has been below par, and he ranks among the worst pitchers in the league.
Offensively, both teams have been underwhelming this season, with the Tigers ranking 23rd and the Angels 25th in overall offense. However, the Tigers have a slight edge, and their best hitter, Riley Greene, has been consistent, maintaining an OPS of .838.
Betting odds favor the Tigers as significant favorites with a moneyline of -175, reflecting a 62% implied win probability. However, projections indicate that the Tigers might have a slightly lower chance of winning than the betting line suggests, making this game potentially closer than anticipated. With a game total set at a high 9.0 runs, fans can expect a competitive and high-scoring affair at Comerica Park.
Los Angeles Angels Insights
- Jack Kochanowicz – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)With 7 batters who bat from the other side in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Jack Kochanowicz encounters a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s game.Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
- Mickey Moniak – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+130)Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (22.0) provides evidence that Mickey Moniak has experienced some negative variance this year with his 15.7 actual HR/600.Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
- Matt Thaiss – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-145/+115)In today’s game, Matt Thaiss is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 2nd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.3% rate (81st percentile).Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Detroit Tigers Insights
- Keider Montero – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+140/-185)Out of all SPs, Keider Montero’s fastball velocity of 94.4 mph grades out in the 77th percentile this year.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Parker Meadows – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-260/+195)Parker Meadows has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (68% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st in the batting order today.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- The Detroit Tigers have 4 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jace Jung, Dillon Dingler, Trey Sweeney, Spencer Torkelson).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Betting Trends
- Detroit Tigers – Moneyline (-175)The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 29 of their last 48 games (+13.90 Units / 26% ROI)
- Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-105/-115)The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 34 of their last 63 games (+6.80 Units / 10% ROI)
- Anthony Rendon – Over/Under 1.5 Hits Runs and RBIs (-135/+105)Anthony Rendon has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 10 of his last 12 games (+7.75 Units / 54% ROI)