Explore the Angels vs Astros Matchup Preview and Game Analysis – Friday, September 20, 2024

Los Angeles Angels

@

Houston Astros

As the Houston Astros prepare to face off against the Los Angeles Angels on September 20, 2024, the stakes are clear for both teams. The Astros, boasting an 83-70 record, are having an above-average season and are still in the hunt for postseason glory. Meanwhile, the Angels, at 62-91, are enduring a tough season with no playoff aspirations. This American League West matchup will see the Astros playing at home in Minute Maid Park, where they recently secured a 3-1 victory against the Angels.

The Astros will once again look to Justin Verlander to lead them from the mound. Verlander, who has a 4-6 record and a high 5.20 ERA this season, is nevertheless projected to perform better moving forward due to an xERA of 4.01, indicating some tough luck in prior outings. In his last start, he pitched decently, giving up just two earned runs over five innings. The Astros’ offense, ranked as the 11th best overall and 3rd in batting average, should provide ample support. Notably, Yordan Alvarez continues to be a standout hitter, sporting a .303 average and 34 home runs.

On the other side, the Angels will counter with Tyler Anderson, who has a 10-13 record and a solid 3.60 ERA. However, his xFIP of 4.82 implies a bit of good fortune, suggesting potential struggles ahead. Anderson will face a disciplined Astros lineup that ranks 4th in fewest walks, which could mitigate his control issues.

While the Astros are heavy favorites with a moneyline of -260, the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, gives the Angels a 34% chance of winning, slightly better than the betting market suggests. This discrepancy could offer value to bettors looking to back the underdog Angels, who might capitalize on any missteps by Houston.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Tyler Anderson – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Tyler Anderson has a large reverse platoon split and should be helped facing 7 opposite-handed batters today.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Brandon Drury – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-175/+135)
  Brandon Drury is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 55% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Los Angeles Angels – 2H Moneyline
  The Los Angeles Angels bullpen ranks as the 3rd-worst in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Houston Astros Insights

• Justin Verlander – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)
  Among all SPs, Justin Verlander’s fastball spin rate of 2395 rpm is in the 76th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Mauricio Dubon – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+135)
  Mauricio Dubon has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86-mph dropping to 78.4-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Jose Altuve pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.6% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 88 of their last 152 games (+20.40 Units / 12% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 83 games (+6.90 Units / 8% ROI)
• Taylor Ward – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Taylor Ward has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 47 games (+15.55 Units / 27% ROI)