Explore the Angels vs Astros Matchup Preview and Game Analysis – Friday, September 20, 2024

Los Angeles Angels

@

Houston Astros

As the Houston Astros and Los Angeles Angels gear up for their matchup on September 20, 2024, the dynamics within the American League West are quite telling. The Astros have enjoyed a solid season with an 83-70 record, positioning themselves well in the playoff hunt. Meanwhile, the Angels, at 62-91, find themselves out of contention. Houston comes into this game with momentum, having secured a 3-1 victory over the Angels just a day earlier, further underscoring their status as the favorites.

On the mound for the Astros is Justin Verlander, a right-hander who has had an up-and-down season with a 5.20 ERA. However, his 4.01 xERA suggests he might have been a bit unlucky, and he projects a decent outing, potentially allowing only 2.5 earned runs. Verlander’s recent performances, including a solid five innings of work with only two earned runs in his last start, indicate he could provide the stability Houston needs.

Tyler Anderson, the Angels’ starter, has pitched to a respectable 3.60 ERA this season, but his 4.82 xFIP hints at potential regression. With projections indicating he’ll allow 3.2 earned runs and struggle with control, Houston’s potent offense, which ranks 3rd in team batting average, will look to capitalize. Despite Anderson’s low strikeout rate, facing the Astros’ disciplined lineup might be challenging.

Offensively, Yordan Alvarez stands out for Houston, boasting a .303 batting average and a .947 OPS. For the Angels, Zach Neto has been the highlight, though the team’s overall offensive struggles have been evident as they rank 28th in team batting average.

The projections favor Houston with a 66% win probability, supported by their superior offense and bullpen, which ranks 11th, compared to the Angels’ 28th-ranked bullpen. As such, the Astros are well-positioned to continue their winning ways against a struggling Los Angeles squad.

Los Angeles Angels Insights

• Tyler Anderson – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-120/-110)
  Tyler Anderson has a large reverse platoon split and should be helped facing 7 opposite-handed batters today.
  Explain: A pitcher with a reverse platoon split will perform better against opposite-handed hitters (i.e. a right-handed pitcher will be better against a left-handed hitter). Holding this advantage against several hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Zach Neto – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-185/+140)
  Zach Neto has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (69% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Los Angeles Angels – 2H Moneyline
  The Los Angeles Angels bullpen ranks as the 3rd-worst in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Houston Astros Insights

• Justin Verlander – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Among all SPs, Justin Verlander’s fastball spin rate of 2395 rpm is in the 76th percentile this year.
  Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Mauricio Dubon – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)
  Mauricio Dubon has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86-mph dropping to 78.4-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Jose Altuve pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (41.6% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 88 of their last 152 games (+20.40 Units / 12% ROI)
• Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Game Total Under in 44 of their last 83 games (+6.90 Units / 8% ROI)
• Taylor Ward – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Taylor Ward has hit the Total Bases Over in 29 of his last 47 games (+15.55 Units / 27% ROI)