Cincinnati Reds
Atlanta Braves
The Atlanta Braves and Cincinnati Reds square off today at Truist Park for the second game in their series and the first game of a double-header. The Braves, boasting a 54-45 record, are having an above-average season and are looking to bounce back after a 4-1 loss to the Reds on July 22. The Braves were favorites in that game with a closing Moneyline of -140. On the other hand, the Reds, with a 48-53 record, are experiencing a below-average season but managed to pull off an upset with a +120 Moneyline.
Allan Winans will start for the Braves. The right-hander has struggled in his only start this season, posting a 10.80 ERA. Winans, who ranks #160 among approximately 350 MLB starting pitchers, has been unlucky according to his 5.73 xFIP. He is projected to pitch 5.2 innings and allow 2.7 earned runs. His main challenge will be avoiding contact, as he projects to allow 5.3 hits and 1.3 walks.
The Reds will counter with Frankie Montas, an average right-handed pitcher. Montas holds a 4-8 record with a 4.85 ERA over 18 starts this season. He projects to pitch 5.6 innings and allow 3.0 earned runs. Montas will face a Braves lineup that is notorious for its power, ranking 9th in MLB in home runs, but is also patient, ranking 6th in walks. Montas’s high walk rate of 9.9% could be a liability here, although the Braves’ impatience might mitigate this issue.
Offensively, the Braves have an edge. Their lineup is ranked 14th overall, slightly better than the Reds’ 17th-ranked offense. While the Reds lead MLB in stolen bases, their team batting average ranks 27th, a significant weakness.
One key player to watch is Marcell Ozuna, the Braves’ best hitter, who has been on fire, batting .500 with a 1.491 OPS over the past week. For the Reds, Elly De La Cruz has been their standout, with a .313 average and 0.984 OPS over the same period.
Betting markets and THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, both peg the Braves with a 54% win probability. With the Braves eager to avenge their previous loss and capitalize on their power-hitting prowess, they look well-poised to take this matchup.
Cincinnati Reds Insights
- The Cincinnati Reds infield defense projects as the weakest out of every team in action today.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
- Cincinnati Reds – 2H MoneylineThe Cincinnati Reds bullpen projects as the 5th-worst in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.