Pittsburgh Pirates
Cleveland Guardians
(-120/+100)-150
As the Cleveland Guardians host the Pittsburgh Pirates on August 30, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting positions in the standings. The Guardians, sitting at 76-58, are enjoying a strong season and are in contention for a playoff spot, while the Pirates, at 62-71, are struggling and have been unable to find their rhythm.
In their last outing, the Guardians secured a 7-5 victory over the Kansas City Royals, continuing their solid play. Meanwhile, the Pirates fell short against the Chicago Cubs, losing 14-10 in a high-scoring affair that highlighted their ongoing offensive woes.
Looking ahead to the mound matchups, the Guardians are projected to start Ben Lively, who has shown flashes of effectiveness this season with an ERA of 3.62. However, his xFIP of 4.54 suggests he has been somewhat fortunate and may face challenges going forward. In his last start on August 24, Lively pitched well, going 7 innings with just 2 earned runs, 4 strikeouts, and 5 hits allowed. On the other side, Bailey Falter will take the mound for the Pirates, carrying a less impressive track record, including a 4.25 ERA and a troubling last performance where he allowed 5 earned runs in 5 innings.
Offensively, the Guardians rank 21st in MLB, which is below average, but they have been boosted by the performance of Jose Ramirez, the team’s best hitter. Conversely, the Pirates rank 26th in MLB for offense, struggling to find consistency at the plate.
According to the leading MLB projection system, the Guardians are favored to win with a projected score of 4.89 runs, while the Pirates are expected to score around 4.71 runs. Given the Guardians’ stronger pitching and recent form, they appear well-positioned to secure a victory in this matchup.
Pittsburgh Pirates Insights
- Bailey Falter – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+105/-135)Bailey Falter’s fastball velocity has spiked 1.2 mph this year (91.3 mph) over where it was last season (90.1 mph).Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his velocity will likely see improved results.
- Billy McKinney – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-140/+110)Billy McKinney will probably have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Cleveland Guardians has just 1 same-handed RP.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- Rowdy Tellez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)Rowdy Tellez hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 93rd percentile) and will be challenged by the league’s 7th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Cleveland Guardians Insights
- Despite technically being the “starter” in today’s matchup, Ben Lively may not go more than a couple frames considering he will be treated as more of an opener.Explain: Openers have become a common strategy where a relief pitcher is used for the first (and maybe second) inning. This can suppress early run scoring as relievers are generally of a higher quality than non-ace starters.
- Steven Kwan – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+105/-135)Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (6.5) provides evidence that Steven Kwan has had positive variance on his side this year with his 16.4 actual HR/600.Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
- Ben Lively – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-115/-115)Austin Hedges, the Guardians’s expected catcher in today’s matchup, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).Explain: Pitch framing is a catcher’s ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, “stealing” strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-120/+100)The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Over in 28 of their last 49 games at home (+6.80 Units / 13% ROI)
- Pittsburgh Pirates – Run Line +1.5 (-155)The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 53 of their last 92 games (+12.75 Units / 11% ROI)
- Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+300/-440)Jose Ramirez has hit the Home Runs Over in 8 of his last 29 games (+12.50 Units / 43% ROI)