Philadelphia Phillies
New York Mets
(+100/-120)-110
As the New York Mets host the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 3 of their National League Division Series matchup on October 8, 2024, fans can expect an intense battle at Citi Field. With both teams holding a 1-1 record in the series so far, every pitch and swing takes on heightened importance. The Mets are putting their hopes on Sean Manaea, a left-hander with a solid 12-6 record and a commendable 3.47 ERA this season. However, his xFIP of 4.04 suggests a slight dip in performance could be on the horizon, indicating some fortune has accompanied his outings.
Opposite Manaea, the Phillies will counter with the right-handed Aaron Nola. Nola’s been reliable, notching a 14-8 record with a strong 3.57 ERA. As the #46 ranked starting pitcher, he brings a proven track record to the mound. Both starting pitchers have their work cut out for them, though, given the offensive firepower both teams possess. The Mets boast the 9th-best offense, highlighted by a 5th-place ranking in home runs, while the Phillies sport an even more potent lineup, ranked 4th both in overall offense and team batting average.
The Mets have the slight edge according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, which gives them a 51% chance of claiming victory. This nudges a close matchup in their favor despite betting odds that reflect a neck-and-neck race (-110 for both clubs). Offensively, New York’s Mark Vientos stands out, riding a hot streak with a .400 batting average, 8 hits, and 2 homers over the last week.
With both bullpens ranking in the teens and projected runs sitting low, mistakes and managerial moves will be magnified under the playoff spotlight. This game shapes up to be a critical turning point in the series.
Philadelphia Phillies Insights
- Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-110)The Philadelphia Phillies infield defense projects as the 2nd-weakest out of all the teams playing today.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
- Bryce Harper – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)Bryce Harper is likely to have an edge against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the New York Mets only has 1 same-handed RP.Explain: Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.
- Bryce Harper – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-170/+130)Bryce Harper has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards baseball’s 4th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
New York Mets Insights
- Sean Manaea – Over/Under 15.5 Pitching Outs (+115/-145)Sean Manaea has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying 4.6 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than average.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Jose Iglesias – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-235/+180)The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Iglesias in the 94th percentile when estimating his batting average skill.Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player’s ability to generate hits.
- Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the New York Mets with a 22.9% underlying K%.Explain: THE BAT X analyzes each player in today’s specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.
Betting Trends
- New York Mets – Moneyline (-110)The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 67 of their last 107 games (+21.30 Units / 15% ROI)
- Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-120/-110)The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Team Total Under in 64 of their last 111 games (+11.10 Units / 9% ROI)
- Bryce Harper – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+120/-155)Bryce Harper has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 21 away games (+9.70 Units / 36% ROI)