Explore Player Props Preview for Orioles vs Mets – 8/21/24

Baltimore Orioles

@

New York Mets

As the New York Mets prepare to host the Baltimore Orioles at Citi Field on August 21, 2024, both teams are looking to solidify their positions in a competitive landscape. The Mets currently sit at 65-61, enjoying an above-average season, while the Orioles boast a strong record of 74-53, marking them as one of the top teams in the league. This game marks the third matchup in a series that has already seen drama unfold, with the Orioles taking the previous game.

On the mound, the Mets are projected to start Sean Manaea, who has had a decent season with a 9-5 record and a solid ERA of 3.46. However, his xFIP of 4.30 suggests he may have benefitted from some good fortune this year. Manaea’s high flyball rate could be a concern against an explosive Orioles lineup that leads MLB with 157 home runs. Conversely, Baltimore will counter with Cole Irvin, whose performance has been lackluster, reflected in his below-average ERA of 4.85 and xERA of 5.77, indicating he might struggle against a potent Mets offense, which ranks 8th overall in MLB.

According to projections, the Mets are favored in this matchup with an expected team total of 4.60 runs, while the Orioles project to score around 4.31 runs. The Mets’ last seven games have seen Pete Alonso shine as their best hitter, contributing to an offense that excels particularly in power with a 4th rank in home runs. If Manaea can keep the ball in the park, the Mets may have the edge in this close contest, especially given their strong offensive capabilities against a pitcher like Irvin.

Baltimore Orioles Insights

• Baltimore Orioles – Moneyline (+120)
  The Baltimore Orioles infield defense grades out as the 2nd-strongest out of all the teams on the slate today.
  Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
• Eloy Jimenez – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)
  Eloy Jimenez has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (93% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.
  Explain: The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.
• Baltimore Orioles – Moneyline (+120)
  The Baltimore Orioles projected lineup profiles as the 3rd-strongest of all teams on the slate in terms of overall batting skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

New York Mets Insights

• Sean Manaea – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-110/-120)
  Sean Manaea has been given an above-average leash this year, throwing 4.2 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average hurler.
  Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Mark Vientos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-105/-125)
  Mark Vientos has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 98.5-mph average in the past two weeks’ worth of games to his seasonal 91.2-mph mark.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• New York Mets – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Mets’ bullpen grades out as the 9th-worst among all the teams in MLB.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 23 of their last 36 games at home (+8.60 Units / 21% ROI)
• Baltimore Orioles – Run Line +1.5 (-175)
  The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 61 of their last 112 games (+18.35 Units / 14% ROI)
• Gunnar Henderson – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+190/-255)
  Gunnar Henderson has hit the RBIs Over in 6 of his last 7 games (+9.05 Units / 129% ROI)