Explore Player Props Preview for Mets vs Yankees – 5/18/25

New York Mets

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New York Yankees

On May 18, 2025, the New York Yankees host the New York Mets in a highly anticipated Interleague matchup at Yankee Stadium. Both teams are enjoying strong seasons, with the Yankees sporting a record of 26-19 and the Mets at 29-17. The rivalry adds extra flair as the Yankees are the 2nd best offense in MLB, while the Mets rank 6th. In their previous encounter, the Yankees emerged victorious, buoyed by a complete game shutout from their ace.

Max Fried is projected to take the mound for the Yankees, boasting an impressive 6-0 record and a stellar ERA of 1.11. Although Fried’s xFIP suggests he may have benefitted from some luck, he remains a top-tier pitcher, currently ranked 6th among all starting pitchers in MLB. The projections indicate he’ll pitch approximately 6.0 innings and allow 2.2 earned runs. Meanwhile, David Peterson takes the hill for the Mets, struggling to match Fried’s dominance with a 2-2 record and a 3.05 ERA. However, his metrics suggest he may also be due for some regression, which could work in the Yankees’ favor.

The Yankees’ offense is particularly dangerous, leading the league in home runs, which poses a challenge for Peterson, a high-groundball pitcher. Given the Yankees’ elite offensive talent and favorable projections, they are positioned as strong betting favorites with a moneyline of -170. The Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, reflecting expectations for a competitive matchup, although the Yankees’ implied team total of 4.77 runs suggests they will be the primary beneficiaries of the power battle.

New York Mets Insights

• New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+135)
  David Peterson is an extreme groundball pitcher (50.3% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Yankee Stadium — the #6 HR venue in the league — today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Starling Marte – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Extreme flyball bats like Starling Marte generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Max Fried.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• New York Mets – Moneyline (+145)
  The New York Mets projected batting order ranks as the 2nd-best of all teams today in terms of overall batting skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

New York Yankees Insights

• Max Fried – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Max Fried has relied on his non-fastballs 10.5% less often this season (40.4%) than he did last season (50.9%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Jasson Dominguez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  In the past week, Jasson Dominguez’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.9% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• New York Yankees – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Yankees’ bullpen projects as the 7th-best among all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• New York Yankees – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-125/-105)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 37 games (+4.25 Units / 10% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (+100/-120)
  The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 43 games (+7.20 Units / 15% ROI)
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+105/-135)
  Aaron Judge has hit the RBIs Under in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+7.15 Units / 23% ROI)