Explore Player Props Preview for Mets vs Yankees – 5/18/25

New York Mets

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New York Yankees

As the New York Yankees prepare to host the New York Mets on May 18, 2025, the stakes are high in this Interleague matchup. The Yankees, currently 26-19 and boasting the 2nd best offense in MLB, will look to recover after a narrow 3-2 loss to the Mets in yesterday’s game. Meanwhile, the Mets are 29-17, riding a solid wave of momentum.

Max Fried is projected to take the mound for the Yankees, entering the game with a perfect 6-0 record and an impressive ERA of 1.11. Fried’s elite status is underscored by his ranking as the 5th best starting pitcher in MLB, a distinction that suggests he is more than capable of handling the Mets’ lineup. However, his xFIP of 3.55 indicates that he might be due for some regression, particularly against a team like the Mets that can capitalize on pitching mistakes.

On the other side, David Peterson will start for the Mets. While he holds a decent ERA of 3.05, he is ranked as a below-average pitcher, and the projections suggest he could struggle against the Yankees’ powerful offense. This season, the Yankees have smashed an impressive 78 home runs, which is the most in MLB. Peterson’s high groundball rate could mitigate some of that power, but his ability to manage walks and hits will be critical.

Interestingly, the Yankees’ best hitter has been in fantastic form, with a .440 batting average over the past week. If he continues this trend, it could spell trouble for Peterson. Despite the Yankees being favored with a moneyline of -160 and an implied team total of 4.98 runs, they will need to ensure that Fried’s elite performance translates into a much-needed victory.

New York Mets Insights

• New York Mets – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+135)
  David Peterson is an extreme groundball pitcher (50.3% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Yankee Stadium — the #6 HR venue in the league — today.
  Explain: This pitcher’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-expected performance.
• Starling Marte – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  Extreme flyball bats like Starling Marte generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Max Fried.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• New York Mets – Moneyline (+145)
  The New York Mets projected batting order ranks as the 2nd-best of all teams today in terms of overall batting skill.
  Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

New York Yankees Insights

• Max Fried – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105)
  Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Max Fried has relied on his non-fastballs 10.5% less often this season (40.4%) than he did last season (50.9%).
  Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
• Jasson Dominguez – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-155/+120)
  In the past week, Jasson Dominguez’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.9% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• New York Yankees – 2H Moneyline
  According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the New York Yankees’ bullpen projects as the 6th-best among all major league teams.
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Betting Trends

• New York Yankees – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (-140/+110)
  The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 21 of their last 37 games (+4.25 Units / 10% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.0 Game Total (-115/-105)
  The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Under in 25 of their last 43 games (+7.20 Units / 15% ROI)
• Aaron Judge – Over/Under 0.5 RBIs (+105/-135)
  Aaron Judge has hit the RBIs Under in 15 of his last 20 games at home (+7.15 Units / 23% ROI)