Explore Player Props Preview for Marlins vs Giants – 8/31/24

Miami Marlins

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San Francisco Giants

The San Francisco Giants will host the Miami Marlins at Oracle Park on August 31, 2024, in the second game of their series. Both teams are currently out of contention, with the Giants sitting at .500 with a record of 68-68, while the Marlins struggle at 49-86. The Giants have been average this season, but they have a great opportunity to build on their recent win against the Marlins by a score of 3-1 on August 30, 2024.

Mason Black is projected to take the mound for the Giants. Despite being ranked the 310th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, he has shown signs of potential improvement, indicated by an xFIP of 6.52, suggesting he has been somewhat unlucky this season. Black’s high flyball rate of 48% could play to his advantage against a Marlins offense that ranks 29th in home runs, making it tough for them to capitalize on his flyballs.

On the other side, the Marlins will start Edward Cabrera, who is considered an average pitcher. Cabrera has a concerning walk rate of 12.7%, which could be exploited by a Giants offense that ranks 6th in MLB for walks. The projections indicate the Giants might find success in drawing walks against Cabrera, potentially leading to a higher run total.

The Giants’ offense ranks 18th in MLB this season and has shown flashes of brilliance, particularly from standout hitters like Matt Chapman. Meanwhile, the Marlins’ offense ranks 29th overall and has struggled significantly. With a low game total of 7.5 runs projected, the Giants have the upper hand as they look to capitalize on their recent momentum.

Miami Marlins Insights

• Edward Cabrera – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+125/-160)
  Given that flyball batters hold a big edge over groundball pitchers, Edward Cabrera and his 47.9% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a troublesome spot in today’s outing being matched up with 0 opposing GB batters.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Kyle Stowers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-165/+130)
  Kyle Stowers has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 97.1-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal 89.9-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Miami Marlins – 2H Moneyline
  The Miami Marlins bullpen grades out as the 3rd-worst in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game’s runs.

San Francisco Giants Insights

• Mason Black – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145)
  Given his large platoon split, Mason Black will hold the advantage squaring off against 6 bats in the projected lineup who share his handedness in today’s matchup.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Mike Yastrzemski – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+125/-160)
  Extreme groundball hitters like Mike Yastrzemski usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Edward Cabrera.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Heliot Ramos – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Heliot Ramos has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.
  Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• San Francisco Giants – 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line -0.5 (+115)
  The San Francisco Giants have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 62 games at home (+8.05 Units / 11% ROI)
• Miami Marlins – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-115/-115)
  The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 42 of their last 66 away games (+15.50 Units / 20% ROI)
• Michael Conforto – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-170/+130)
  Michael Conforto has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 36 games (+8.35 Units / 22% ROI)