Explore Player Props Preview for Guardians vs White Sox – 9/11/24

Cleveland Guardians

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Chicago White Sox

On September 11, 2024, the Chicago White Sox will host the Cleveland Guardians at Guaranteed Rate Field for the third game of their series. The Guardians are currently sitting comfortably in the playoff picture with an 83-62 record, while the White Sox are struggling at 33-113. In their last matchup on September 10, the Guardians shut out the White Sox 5-0, showcasing a dominant performance.

The pitching matchup features Davis Martin for the White Sox, who has had a rough season with a 0-3 record despite a solid ERA of 3.29. However, his xFIP of 4.38 suggests he may have been fortunate and could struggle moving forward. Martin’s projections indicate he may allow 2.7 earned runs and strike out just 3.9 batters today, which could be a concern against an effective Guardians lineup.

On the other hand, the Guardians will counter with Matthew Boyd, who has posted a stellar 2.20 ERA in just five starts this year. Boyd is ranked 57th among MLB starting pitchers, providing Cleveland with a reliable arm. His projections suggest he will allow 2.3 earned runs while striking out 5.6 batters, which gives him a favorable edge against a White Sox offense that ranks 30th in the league.

Despite the White Sox’s dismal season, there may be value in betting on them. THE BAT X projects the White Sox to score an average of 3.81 runs, which is low, but their implied team total stands at just 3.03 runs. Given the Guardians’ strong bullpen, which ranks 5th in MLB, they are expected to control the game effectively. However, with the White Sox’s best hitter, Andrew Vaughn, coming off a hot streak, they could surprise if they find a way to capitalize on any mistakes from Boyd.

Cleveland Guardians Insights

• Matthew Boyd – Over/Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-145/+110)
  With 8 hitters who hit from the other side in the opposing team’s projected offense, Matthew Boyd will be in a tough position while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this game.
  Explain: Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.
• Cleveland Guardians – 2H Moneyline
  The Cleveland Guardians bullpen profiles as the 6th-best in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).
  Explain: Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.

Chicago White Sox Insights

• Chuckie Robinson – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)
  The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chuckie Robinson in the 2nd percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.
  Explain: THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Betting Trends

• Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 1.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Chicago White Sox have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 21 of their last 38 games (+3.50 Units / 8% ROI)
• Over/Under 7.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 42 of their last 71 away games (+15.70 Units / 20% ROI)
• Jose Ramirez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)
  Jose Ramirez has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 13 away games (+10.75 Units / 59% ROI)