Los Angeles Dodgers
Kansas City Royals
(-105/-115)+140
As the Kansas City Royals prepare to host the Los Angeles Dodgers on June 28, 2025, they find themselves in a challenging position. The Royals, currently sitting at 38-44, are struggling this season and rank 28th in MLB offense. Meanwhile, the Dodgers have been dominant, boasting a 52-31 record and ranking 1st in MLB for both team batting average and home runs.
In their last matchup, the Royals were unable to keep pace, falling to the Dodgers in a game where Shohei Ohtani showcased his prowess, albeit from the bullpen. Today, Ohtani is projected to start, and he brings an elite reputation with him; he is ranked 10th among starting pitchers in MLB, despite having yet to start a game this season. Ohtani’s 4.50 ERA is somewhat misleading, as his 2.54 xFIP suggests he has been unlucky and is likely to improve.
On the other side, Seth Lugo will take the mound for Kansas City. While Lugo has an impressive 2.93 ERA this year, his Power Rankings position at 102nd indicates that he is an average performer overall. His projections for today suggest he will struggle, allowing an average of 3.3 earned runs and 6.0 hits over 5.4 innings.
The Royals’ offense, which ranks 29th in home runs, faces a daunting task against the Dodgers’ elite pitching and hitting. With the game total set at 9.5 runs, the projections suggest a high-scoring affair, favoring the Dodgers significantly. Kansas City is currently a +145 underdog, and while they may have some advantages, the odds heavily favor Los Angeles in this interleague matchup.
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Los Angeles Dodgers – Moneyline (-160)The Los Angeles Dodgers outfield defense grades out as the 3rd-weakest out of all the teams playing today.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.
- Tommy Edman – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)Tommy Edman has been lucky in regards to his home runs this year; his 24.5 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is quite a bit higher than his 12.4 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.Explain: xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.
- Los Angeles Dodgers hitters collectively rank 4th- in the game for power this year when using their 10.4% Barrel%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
Kansas City Royals Insights
- Seth Lugo – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)Compared to the average hurler, Seth Lugo has been granted a longer leash than the average pitcher this year, tallying an additional 5.4 adjusted pitches each start.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Maikel Garcia – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+135/-180)Over the past week, Maikel Garcia’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.6% down to 0%.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Salvador Perez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)Today, Salvador Perez is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 4th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 37.2% rate (95th percentile).Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-135/+105)The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 46 of their last 65 games (+26.05 Units / 34% ROI)
- Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-105/-115)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 68 games (+7.45 Units / 10% ROI)
- Bobby Witt Jr. – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (-115/-115)Bobby Witt Jr. has hit the Runs Under in 16 of his last 20 games at home (+12.40 Units / 56% ROI)