Explore Player Props Preview for Dodgers vs Royals – 6/28/25

Los Angeles Dodgers

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Kansas City Royals

On June 28, 2025, the Kansas City Royals will host the Los Angeles Dodgers in the second game of their series at Kauffman Stadium. The Dodgers enter this matchup with a strong 52-31 record, sitting comfortably atop the standings, while the Royals struggle at 38-44, making it a challenging season for them. In their previous game, the Dodgers edged out the Royals 5-4, continuing their impressive run, and they’ll be looking to build on that momentum.

The matchup features two right-handed pitchers: Seth Lugo for the Royals and Shohei Ohtani for the Dodgers. Lugo, ranked 99th among approximately 350 starting pitchers in MLB, has an excellent ERA of 2.93 this season, though his 3.93 xFIP suggests he may have been a bit fortunate so far. He has been inconsistent, with a record of 4-5 over 14 starts, and he projects to allow 3.2 earned runs today, which is concerning given the strength of the Dodgers’ offense.

Despite Lugo’s recent solid outing where he pitched six innings with only one earned run, his overall projections indicate potential struggles against a Dodgers lineup that ranks as the 1st best in MLB. Ohtani, on the other hand, has only made two appearances out of the bullpen this season and has a mediocre ERA of 4.50. However, his xFIP of 2.54 indicates he has been unlucky, suggesting he could perform better in a starting role.

The Dodgers have an implied team total of 5.21 runs, showcasing their offensive dominance, while the Royals are projected for 4.29 runs. With the high Game Total of 9.5 runs, bettors should keep an eye on the Dodgers’ ability to capitalize on Lugo’s potential weaknesses and the advantage Ohtani might find against a Royals offense that ranks 27th overall in MLB.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

• Los Angeles Dodgers – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-165)
  Out of all starters, Ben Casparius’s fastball velocity of 95.9 mph is in the 91st percentile this year.
  Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
• Max Muncy – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Extreme groundball bats like Max Muncy generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Seth Lugo.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Los Angeles Dodgers hitters collectively rank 4th- in the game for power this year when using their 10.4% Barrel%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Kansas City Royals Insights

• Seth Lugo – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130/+100)
  Given that groundball batters hold a significant edge over flyball pitchers, Seth Lugo and his 42.7% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a hard spot in today’s outing matching up with 3 opposing GB bats.
  Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
• Maikel Garcia – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-180)
  Over the past week, Maikel Garcia’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.6% down to 0%.
  Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)
  Today, Salvador Perez is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 4th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 37.2% rate (95th percentile).
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Betting Trends

• Kansas City Royals – Over/Under 4.5 Team Total (+115/-150)
  The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 46 of their last 65 games (+26.05 Units / 34% ROI)
• Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (-110/-110)
  The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 38 of their last 68 games (+7.45 Units / 10% ROI)
• Salvador Perez – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+140/-180)
  Salvador Perez has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 25 games at home (+13.60 Units / 32% ROI)