Explore Player Props Preview for D-Backs vs Twins – 9/12/25

Arizona Diamondbacks

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Minnesota Twins

On September 12, 2025, the Minnesota Twins will host the Arizona Diamondbacks at Target Field for the opening game of their interleague series. Both teams are looking to turn their seasons around, with Minnesota sitting at 64-82, having struggled throughout the year, and Arizona at 73-74, hovering around .500. Each team’s performance is critical as they look to end the season on a high note.

Minnesota’s Pablo Lopez is projected to take the mound, bringing a solid record of 5-4 and an impressive ERA of 2.84 this season. Ranked as the 39th best starting pitcher in MLB, Lopez has shown he can deliver quality outings. However, he has been somewhat fortunate given his 3.75 xFIP, which suggests he may be due for a regression. The Twins’ offense has been average overall, but they rank a concerning 25th in batting average, which may impact their ability to support Lopez effectively.

Arizona counters with Brandon Pfaadt, who has a less favorable record of 13-8 and an ERA of 5.18. While Pfaadt is not considered a top-tier pitcher, his 3.96 xFIP indicates that he might be due for improvement. The Diamondbacks’ offense ranks a strong 6th overall, bolstered by a solid home run tally that could exploit Minnesota’s pitching struggles.

Both bullpens tell a contrasting story, as Minnesota ranks 29th, highlighting their struggles late in games, while Arizona’s ranks 19th, providing a slight edge. Given the current moneyline, the Twins are favored at -135 with an implied total of 4.23 runs, suggesting tighter competition than their records might imply. With both teams fighting for relevance in the late season, this matchup could offer bettors significant insights into which squad can capitalize on the other’s weaknesses.

Arizona Diamondbacks Insights

• Brandon Pfaadt – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-105/-125)
  Throwing 92.2 adjusted pitches per GS this year on average, Brandon Pfaadt ranks in the 79th percentile.
  Explain: Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
• Ildemaro Vargas – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-230/+175)
  Ildemaro Vargas has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (88% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game.
  Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
• Gabriel Moreno – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-190)
  Gabriel Moreno hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 91st percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s 10th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.
  Explain: This player’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Minnesota Twins Insights

• Minnesota Twins – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-160)
  Pablo Lopez has been lucky this year, compiling a 2.83 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 3.90 — a 1.07 disparity.
  Explain: Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
• Byron Buxton – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-125/-105)
  Byron Buxton has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 96.5-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal 92.2-mph figure.
  Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
• Rating 4th-highest in Major League Baseball this year, Minnesota Twins bats as a unit have notched a 16.1° launch angle on their hardest-hit balls (a reliable metric to assess power skills).
  Explain: If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn’t do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Betting Trends

• Minnesota Twins – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+110/-140)
  The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 41 of their last 66 games (+11.15 Units / 14% ROI)
• Arizona Diamondbacks – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (+125)
  The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 64 of their last 120 games (+16.55 Units / 10% ROI)
• Brooks Lee – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-190/+145)
  Brooks Lee has hit the Total Bases Under in his last 7 games at home (+7.50 Units / 69% ROI)