Atlanta Braves
Philadelphia Phillies
(-115/-105)-130
As the Philadelphia Phillies host the Atlanta Braves on September 1, 2024, the stakes are high in this pivotal National League East matchup. With the Phillies sitting at 80-56, they are having a strong season and currently hold a firm grip on a playoff spot. Meanwhile, the Braves are slightly behind at 74-62, enjoying an above-average season but needing to gain ground to secure a Wild Card position.
In their last game, the Braves faced off against the Phillies, but the details of that encounter remain absent. However, the Phillies are riding a wave of confidence, bolstered by their 7th-best offense in MLB, which boasts a 3rd-best batting average and a strong capability to hit home runs, ranking 6th overall. Brandon Marsh has been a notable performer for Philadelphia, leading the team with a .368 batting average over the last week, driving in 4 RBIs and scoring 4 runs.
On the mound, Aaron Nola is projected to start for the Phillies. He has had a solid year with a 3.30 ERA and is ranked as the 43rd best starting pitcher in MLB. However, advanced metrics suggest he has been somewhat fortunate this season, as indicated by his 3.86 xERA. Nola’s ability to limit walks will be tested against a low-walk Braves offense, which could play to his advantage.
The Braves, on the other hand, will send Spencer Schwellenbach, who has a solid 3.72 ERA and ranks 19th among starters. Despite his good control, he faces a patient Phillies lineup that may negate his efficiency in drawing walks. Given the projections, the Phillies have a high implied team total of 4.27 runs, presenting a favorable betting opportunity for those looking to back the home squad in this crucial game.
Atlanta Braves Insights
- Spencer Schwellenbach – Over/Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-110/-120)Among all SPs, Spencer Schwellenbach’s fastball velocity of 95.5 mph is in the 92nd percentile this year.Explain: Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)Marcell Ozuna has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 98.7-mph average to last season’s 96.5-mph figure.Explain: Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.
- Marcell Ozuna – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (-115/-115)Marcell Ozuna pulls many of his flyballs (35.5% — 89th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s 10th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Philadelphia Phillies Insights
- Aaron Nola – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+150/-195)Compared to average, Aaron Nola has been granted a longer leash than the typical pitcher this year, tallying an extra 5.6 adjusted pitches each outing.Explain: Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.
- Trea Turner – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-260/+195)Trea Turner has been very fortunate when it comes to his batting average this year; his .299 BA is significantly inflated relative to his .253 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.Explain: xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.
- Philadelphia Phillies – Moneyline (-130)The Philadelphia Phillies projected offense projects as the 3rd-best of all teams on the slate in terms of overall hitting ability.Explain: A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.
Betting Trends
- Philadelphia Phillies – Over/Under 2.5 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total (+115/-145)The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 26 of their last 38 games (+13.65 Units / 30% ROI)
- Over/Under 8.0 Game Total (-115/-105)The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 78 of their last 128 games (+27.20 Units / 19% ROI)
- Travis d’Arnaud – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+460/-750)Travis d’Arnaud has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 9 away games (+17.00 Units / 189% ROI)