Athletics
Chicago White Sox
(-105/-115)+115
The Chicago White Sox will host the Oakland Athletics on April 17, 2025, at Guaranteed Rate Field. Both teams enter this matchup struggling, with the White Sox holding a record of 4-13, while the Athletics are slightly better at 8-10. Unfortunately for Chicago, their previous game against Oakland ended in a 3-1 loss, marking another setback in a tough season.
Davis Martin is projected to start for the White Sox. While he has an above-average ERA of 4.24 this season, his xFIP of 4.94 suggests he’s been fortunate and could struggle moving forward. Martin’s low strikeout rate (13.5 K%) could be a concern against an Athletics offense that, despite its ups and downs, ranks 9th in MLB. The projections have him allowing an average of 2.8 earned runs today, which may not be enough to overcome his team’s offensive challenges.
On the other side, the Athletics will counter with JP Sears, who has a less favorable record of 1-2 but is projected to perform better than his current stats indicate. With a SIERA of 3.50, he has the potential to limit the White Sox’s struggling lineup, which ranks as the 30th worst in MLB. His last start on April 11 saw him allowing three earned runs, but he recorded a solid 7 strikeouts in just four innings.
In terms of offense, the Athletics are well-positioned, boasting a potent lineup that has produced 8 home runs from their best hitter this season, compared to the White Sox’s meager total of 12 home runs overall. With the game total set at 8.0 runs and the White Sox being slight underdogs with a moneyline of +115, it might be wise for bettors to lean towards Oakland, who appears to have the upper hand in this matchup.
Athletics Insights
- JP Sears – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-135/+105)JP Sears’s slider rate has risen by 11.4% from last season to this one (33.8% to 45.2%) .Explain: Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.
- Jhonny Pereda – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)Bats such as Jhonny Pereda with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Davis Martin who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.Explain: This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.
- Lawrence Butler – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+115/-145)Lawrence Butler has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.6%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 5th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Chicago White Sox Insights
- Davis Martin – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120/-155)Davis Martin’s 2378.5-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season grades out in the 78th percentile among all starting pitchers.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Chase Meidroth – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-155/+120)Chase Meidroth has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (80% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.Explain: The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.
- It may be smart to expect stronger performance for the Chicago White Sox offense the rest of the season, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 4th-unluckiest offense in baseball this year.Explain: When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.
Betting Trends
- Chicago White Sox – Over/Under 3.5 Team Total (-105/-125)The Chicago White Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 16 games (+7.65 Units / 40% ROI)
- Athletics – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline (-130)The Athletics have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 3 of their last 7 away games (+0.15 Units / 2% ROI)
- Michael A. Taylor – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+470/-800)Michael A. Taylor has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 8 games at home (+8.70 Units / 109% ROI)