Oakland Athletics
Houston Astros
(-110/-110)-195
On September 10, 2024, the Houston Astros will host the Oakland Athletics at Minute Maid Park in the first game of their series. The Astros, with a record of 77-66, are enjoying an above-average season and currently sit in a strong position within the American League West. In contrast, the Athletics are struggling with a 62-82 record, marking a disappointing campaign. Both teams are coming off tough losses, with the Astros falling to the Arizona Diamondbacks 12-6 and the Athletics losing 9-1 to the Detroit Tigers.
The matchup features Astros’ right-hander Spencer Arrighetti, who has had a challenging season with a 7-12 record and an ERA of 4.82. Despite his struggles, Arrighetti has shown potential, as indicated by his 4.09 xFIP, suggesting he might be due for better results. He projects to pitch 5.2 innings and strike out approximately 6.3 batters, which could be advantageous against an Athletics lineup that ranks 5th in MLB for strikeouts.
On the other side, Oakland will send out lefty JP Sears, who has also faced difficulties, with an 11-10 record and an average ERA of 4.34. Sears has been particularly vulnerable lately, allowing 5 earned runs in his last start. His low strikeout rate of 18.5% could be a concern against an Astros offense that ranks 8th overall and 3rd in batting average.
According to the leading MLB projection system, the Astros are favored with a high implied team total of 4.85 runs. The projections suggest Houston could score around 5.62 runs on average in this game, further emphasizing their offensive strength against a struggling Athletics pitching staff.
Oakland Athletics Insights
- Oakland Athletics – Moneyline (+170)The Oakland Athletics infield defense profiles as the 2nd-strongest out of all the teams on the slate today.Explain: Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.
- Brent Rooker – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+130/-170)Brent Rooker has been lucky this year, notching a .400 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .359 — a .041 disparity.Explain: Players that are overperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.
- Oakland Athletics batters as a group have been one of the best in the majors this year (6th-) when assessing their 89.3-mph average exit velocity.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Houston Astros Insights
- Spencer Arrighetti – Over/Under 17.5 Pitching Outs (-115/-115)Tallying 15 outs per game per started this year on average, Spencer Arrighetti checks in at the 21st percentile.Explain: A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.
- Victor Caratini – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-185/+140)Victor Caratini has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 7.2% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the past 14 days.Explain: Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.
- Jose Altuve – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+100/-130)Jose Altuve pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.1% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.
Betting Trends
- Houston Astros – Run Line -1.5 (+100)The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 60 of their last 108 games (+14.55 Units / 11% ROI)
- Oakland Athletics – Moneyline (+170)The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 24 away games (+9.55 Units / 40% ROI)
- Kyle Tucker – Over/Under 0.5 Singles (+130/-170)Kyle Tucker has hit the Singles Under in 34 of his last 50 games (+11.40 Units / 16% ROI)