Pittsburgh Pirates
Los Angeles Dodgers
(-110/-110)-260
On August 11, 2024, the Los Angeles Dodgers will host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Dodger Stadium for the third game of their series. The Dodgers are currently enjoying a strong season with a record of 68-49, while the Pirates stand at 56-60, struggling to find their footing. In their previous matchup on August 10, the Dodgers emerged victorious with a convincing 4-1 win, showcasing their dominance against the Pirates.
The projections heavily favor the Dodgers, who rank 1st in MLB in home runs and have an elite offensive lineup that scored an impressive 5.93 runs on average, well above the league average. Their ace, Tyler Glasnow, is set to take the mound. Glasnow has been exceptional this season, ranking as the 5th best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced-stat Power Rankings. He boasts a solid 3.54 ERA and a remarkable 33.1% strikeout rate, which could spell trouble for a Pirates offense that ranks 5th in strikeouts.
In contrast, Bailey Falter of the Pirates has struggled, projecting to pitch only 4.4 innings on average with 3.1 earned runs allowed. His elevated 4.68 xFIP suggests he may be due for worse performances as the season continues. The Pirates’ offense, ranked 26th in MLB, has also had issues generating runs, making their task even more daunting against a potent Dodgers lineup.
Pittsburgh Pirates Insights
- Bailey Falter – Over/Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+115/-150)Bailey Falter’s higher utilization rate of his fastball this year (65.2 vs. 52.8% last season) is not ideal since they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.Explain: Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.
- Oneil Cruz – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-135/+105)Oneil Cruz has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 94.8-mph dropping to 85-mph in the past week’s worth of games.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
- The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Michael A. Taylor, Joey Bart, Oneil Cruz).Explain: Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts
Los Angeles Dodgers Insights
- Tyler Glasnow – Over/Under 8.5 Strikeouts (+110/-140)Tyler Glasnow’s 2558-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 98th percentile among all SPs.Explain: Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.
- Andy Pages – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-180/+140)Pittsburgh’s #2-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate poses a formidable challenge for Andy Pages, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.Explain: This player’s skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team’s defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.
- Los Angeles Dodgers batters as a unit rank near the top of Major League Baseball this year (5th-) as it relates to their 89.3-mph average exit velocity.Explain: Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.
Betting Trends
- Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110)The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Game Total Over in 22 of their last 35 games (+7.95 Units / 21% ROI)
- Pittsburgh Pirates – Run Line +1.5 (+110)The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Run Line in 43 of their last 74 games (+11.60 Units / 12% ROI)
- Bryan Reynolds – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-160/+125)Bryan Reynolds has hit the Total Bases Over in 30 of his last 50 games (+11.60 Units / 21% ROI)